The scenario is still highly unlikely, but speculation is already rife about who could replace Joe Biden if the Democratic president withdraws from the race for the White House.
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Overview of the names circulating.
Kamala Harris
She stands out as the most obvious choice: Vice President Kamala Harris, already set to succeed Joe Biden in the event of his death or incapacity, would be very well positioned to be chosen by Democrats if the president were to step down.
A serial pioneer, the daughter of a Jamaican father and an Indian mother, she was the first woman and the first black person to become California’s attorney general, and then the first senator of South Asian origin.
From her career as a magistrate, she retains a reputation for toughness that she could use in a campaign where crime issues weigh heavily.
Some progressives, however, criticize him for harshly punishing petty crimes, which has particularly affected minorities.
The 59-year-old vice president also suffers from anemic approval rating, which could push Democrats to rally around another candidate.
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Gavin Newsom
There is no rule that states that the running mate automatically replaces the incumbent candidate. That is why the name of California Governor Gavin Newsom is also being mentioned insistently.
The 56-year-old Democrat, a former mayor of San Francisco, has led the country’s most populous state for five years, making California a sanctuary for abortion rights.
The man with the neatly combed locks of hair has, for the moment, affirmed that the “conversations” around Joe Biden’s state of health are “not good for our democracy.”
But he maintains only relative mystery about his presidential ambitions.
The governor has in recent months made numerous trips abroad, broadcasted unbridled ads touting his record and invested millions of dollars in a political action committee, fueling speculation about a candidacy in 2028. Or as early as 2024?
Gretchen Whitmer
Another possible Democratic candidate: Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
The 52-year-old is leading Michigan, which has both a large working-class population and large black and Arab communities – constituencies that Biden is currently struggling to appeal to.
A fierce opponent of Donald Trump, she is known to have been the target of a kidnapping plan by a far-right militia.
The state she leads will be one of the most contested for the November presidential election, a strong argument, according to her supporters, for nominating her as the party’s candidate.
Gretchen Whitmer brushed aside speculation about a possible candidacy, saying Monday she was “proud” to support Joe Biden.
Josh Shapiro
At 51, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is at the helm of the largest swing state (i.e. a state with a fluctuating political colour depending on the elections) which will play a decisive role in November.
Before taking up the post in 2022, by clearly beating a radical right-wing competitor supported by Donald Trump, he had been twice elected attorney general of Pennsylvania.
In that role, the official exposed sexual assaults by Catholic priests against thousands of children and sued Purdue Laboratories, the maker of the powerful opiate OxyContin.
An effective orator and a confirmed centrist, Josh Shapiro has given himself the slogan of governor: “Get shit done.”
Others
The names of Illinois governor JB Pritzker; Maryland governor Wes Moore; and Kentucky governor Andy Beshear are also circulating, but their chances appear, for the moment, more limited.
Just like those of Senator Amy Klobuchar or Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg – both former 2020 presidential candidates.