A Bloomberg survey showed that the US economy will continue to grow whether Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential elections, but there are some notable differences in how each affects different types of assets.
While a Trump presidency is expected to be more beneficial for holders of stocks, gold, and bitcoin, a Harris presidency is expected to see some improvement in housing costs.
According to the poll – which included 350 investors and was conducted between October 21 and 25 – 38% of participants expected that US stock markets would record a greater rise over the next year if Trump wins, while only 13% expected similar growth under Harris’ presidency.
However, about half of respondents expected the market to rise or maintain its strong performance if Harris wins, while 59% expected a similar performance under Trump.
Gold and Bitcoin with Trump and housing with Harris
Participants indicated that Trump’s presidency would be more positive for gold and bitcoin prices, as 57% of investors expected gold prices to rise if Trump wins, compared to only 45% who expected the same increase under Harris’ presidency.
Regarding Bitcoin, investors expected it to reach a record level of more than $80,000 if Trump wins, while they expected it to reach about $65,000 under a Harris presidency.
Regarding housing costs, respondents expected the average interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages to fall to 5.5% by the end of Harris’ term, compared to 5.9% under Trump, which could provide some relief to potential buyers waiting for lower borrowing costs.
Bloomberg data showed that US stock markets usually witness a rise after the elections, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose by 6.6% in the six months following Election Day, compared to an increase of 1.5% during the six months preceding it.
