It seems that the commercial truce between the United States and China, announced this week, is considered in China a resounding national victory. While US President Donald Trump portrayed the agreement as a success for his escalatory tactics, he is seen in Beijing as evidence of the collapse of the American will under the weight of the deteriorating markets and consumer discontent.
The Economist newspaper said that the official Chinese media described the agreement as a “great victory”, while one of the commentators under a publication on the US embassy platform of the Embassy wrote: “The imperialists are just a tigers of paper, and the Americans cannot tolerate the shelves of their stores.”
Concessions: Who presented what?
Under the agreement, the United States will reduce the “mutual” customs duties from 125% to 10% on Chinese goods, for a period of 90 days. Washington also reduced other customs duties by 120%, which was imposed on small charges worth $ 800 in the “D-Minimis” mechanism.
On the other hand, China did not make great concessions, but it agreed to reduce the fees on American goods to 10%, and the ban on US Boeing aircraft needed in its civil fleet. Beijing also hinted at the possibility of restrictions on the export of rare ground minerals.
Positive economic indicators
The agreement was quickly reflected on Chinese economic expectations. Goldman Sachs increased his appreciation for the growth of GDP in China 2025 from 4%to 4.6%, while JP Morgan raised the estimate to 4.8%. Exports were expected to decrease by 5% this year, but they will now remain stable, according to estimates.
“Someone should stand in the face of hegemony, and China is now the support of many countries in the world,” said Cheng Yongnian of the University of China at Hong Kong -Chensin. Economist added that President Xi Jinping stressed during a meeting with Latin American leaders on May 13 that “China will defend real pluralism and international justice.”
Victory may turn a burden
Despite the euphoria of victory, the Economist report indicated that there are two chocolates at the tail of this agreement. The first is that the great success may lead Trump to reconsider it, which is an existing possibility in light of the volatility of his positions. The shipping market data shows, according to Bloomberg, that shipments have increased rapidly in an attempt to exploit the 90 -day window before any possible change.
The second is that the demise of the risk of escalation may push the Chinese Communist Party to retreat from the necessary economic reforms, especially those related to stimulating internal consumption. This explains, according to the report, the decline in the stock market in Hong Kong by 2% on May 13, despite the positive news.
The American frequency opens new accounts
Economist saw that Washington’s retreat from the escalation is a broader message to the leadership of the Communist Party of China, according to which the United States lacks readiness for a long -term escalation, whether economically or militarily, including the possibility of moving against Beijing in the Taiwan file.
After Trump’s statement that the agreement would be “great for peace and unity”, the US administration was forced to clarify that the president was not referring to the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland.
On the same day, China pushed through a set of new national security laws to enhance its grip on Hong Kong, and the national discourse increased after news of a Chinese plane by Pakistan to shoot down a Western -made Indian fighter during recent skirmishes.
Nasr with anxiety
For Beijing, there is no doubt that the agreement enhances its political and economic position, and gives it the image of the fixed party in exchange for a confused US administration. However, as the report concludes, “It is easy to embarrass America … but it is difficult to conclude a deal that lasts.”
