The American financial markets will remain closed this Thursday due to the national holiday (Independence Day). Yesterday, the New York Stock Exchange ended a shortened session in scattered order, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq setting new closing records while the Dow Jones fell slightly. The weekend will be marked by the publication of the monthly report on employment in the United States.
The world’s largest economy is expected to have added 190,000 nonfarm payrolls in June while the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4%, according to Bloomberg estimates. Average hourly earnings growth is expected at +0.3% sequentially versus +0.4% previously.
Investors are pricing in a slowdown in the labor market last month as a slew of economic data released Wednesday rekindled hopes of a September Fed rate cut. “With the ISM services index falling yesterday to 48.8, the weakest level since the pandemic, and jobless claims deteriorating, the negative data is finally being viewed as positive for markets,” Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St. James Place, told Bloomberg. “It seems like September is the date everyone is looking at now.” The probability of a September Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points now stands at over 72%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
