Despite the overwhelming confidence displayed by the Trump camp, his victory is not inevitable. Many signs point in the opposite direction.
Both the ex-president’s supporters and his apologists who present themselves as “neutral” analysts seem convinced that Donald Trump cannot lose.
We cite in particular movements in the polling averages and a rallying in his favor among certain groups to affirm that his victory is inevitable.
The facts do not all support this conclusion, far from it.
Trump plateaus
First, it is an illusion to believe that there is a majority willing to vote for Trump. Even in his best moments, he almost never received more than 50% support in polls, and his current level of support is nearing—or has reached—its ceiling.
Second, the narrowing of Kamala Harris’s lead in national polls and the shifts against her in polls in key states are largely due to an avalanche of polls conducted by firms of uneven reputations, several of which are linked to the Republicans.
At best for Trump, polls and average forecasts indicate a virtually even race.
What to compare?
If two runners are nose to nose approaching the finish line, it is important to know which one has what it takes to prevail in the final stretch.
Trump’s performance is showing signs of exhaustion. He cancels important events, his speeches are crazy, he is visibly at the end of his tether and he is preaching to the converted.
Harris, on the contrary, appears energetic, determined and strategic. Her message demonstrates that she is confident of making gains among independents and Republicans disgusted with Trump.
Even if voting intentions change little, polls on the issues show that Harris’ message is carrying. The proportions of people who trust him on key issues like the economy and immigration are increasing.
Aerial game and ground game
Since we are in the United States, the football analogy is perhaps more appropriate than that of running.
Winning requires a good “air game,” which translates into a campaign of persuasion through advertising and the deployment of effective spokespeople on a national scale, such as the Obama couple and the many high-profile Republicans who support Harris .
Above all, what matters to get out the vote is the “ground game”, which requires a high degree of organization at the local level. On this, the Democratic machine is clearly ahead, despite the millions swallowed up by Elon Musk in ineffective, even fraudulent door-to-door operations.
Obviously, to make all this work, you need a lot of money. Financially, the Harris campaign is advantaged, having raised record funds of more than $1 billion from countless donors. Trump is falling behind and relying on the help of a handful of billionaires.
In short, Kamala Harris is not at all in a bad position to finish this race and could deceive those who announce an assured victory for Trump. We’ll have to wait for the votes to be counted before uncorking the bottles of champagne… and that could take a long time.
