The United States has once again increased pressure on Venezuela. After raids in recent months on suspected drug traffickers’ boats off the Venezuelan coast, the American president raised the possibility of striking inside the territory on Wednesday. Venezuela has increased the military presence near its border with Colombia.
“What we are seeing is truly unprecedented,” said Kristina Mani, professor of politics at Oberlin College in Ohio. US forces helicopters were seen near the coast in what a government official described to the Washington Post as training exercises, in anticipation of a possible expansion of operations. Donald Trump also confirmed on Wednesday the authorization of “clandestine operations” by the CIA in the country – usually kept secret.
The goal would be to dislodge Nicolás Maduro from power, according to American officials, cited on condition of anonymity by the New York Times. By exerting ever greater pressure on him.
The results of the July 2024 presidential election in Venezuela are widely contested by the international community, which sees his opponent Edmundo González as the true winner of the vote. Maduro has been at the head of the country since 2013.
Charges
The leader denounced a US intervention aimed at “imposing regime change” and seizing Venezuela’s significant oil reserves.
Venezuela on Thursday strengthened its military presence in states bordering Colombia, as part of maneuvers involving 17,000 troops carried out in response to the deployment of United States warships in the Caribbean, according to Agence France-Presse.
PHOTO SCHNEYDER MENDOZA, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Venezuelan military patrol at the Simón Bolívar International Bridge on the Colombia-Venezuela border on Thursday
Trump accuses Maduro of leading a “narcoterrorist” regime and holding the reins of a drug trafficking organization to the United States.
An accusation undoubtedly exaggerated, believe the specialists. Military personnel would be involved in facilitating the passage of Colombian drugs through Venezuela, according to the organization InSight Crime, which specializes in organized crime. “State corruption through drug trafficking worsened” after Maduro came to power, according to the organization, but the cartel that the United States accuses him of leading would not have such an organized hierarchical structure.
“I think it’s a pretty extreme position (to portray Maduro as a cartel leader),” comments Anita Kellogg, assistant professor at the National Defense University in Washington. “His government would not be the first that probably relies on money from drug sales to increase its revenues,” she adds, but the US actions are “extraordinary”.
Rationale
These accusations targeting Maduro – already launched during Trump’s first term – could justify, in the eyes of the administration, a more extensive operation in Venezuelan territory.
Two weeks ago, Donald Trump sent a memo to Congress informing elected officials that the United States was now engaged in “armed conflict” with drug cartels. Since August, the US military has reportedly targeted at least five boats off the coast of Venezuela suspected of being used for drug trafficking, killing at least 27 people, according to US government sources.
But the justification does not hold water under international law, according to experts. The rules surrounding the use of force in war presuppose a conflict between an army and an organized armed group displaying sufficient violence.
“Normally, you don’t see these kinds of military tactics against drug traffickers. This is an escalation of the use of military forces,” says Mme Kellogg.
Discussions
The United States, on the other hand, seems to have suffered no consequences after its strikes off the coast of Venezuela, notes Mme Mani. “So they will continue to use the hard line, since it seems to be working,” she said, highlighting the change in tone since discussions between the two countries at the start of the year. Trump’s special envoy, Richard Grenell, visited Caracas in January to discuss the return of “Venezuelan criminals” to their country and the release of American citizens detained in Venezuela. Six Americans were then released.
Further discussions took place in recent months, until the US administration broke off diplomatic efforts last week, according to the New York Times. Maduro reportedly offered a significant share of his country’s oil and mineral resources to American companies. Venezuela produces around 1 million barrels of oil every day, exported mainly to China.
But there was no agreement on the political outcome of the country, which caused the discussions to stall.
In a CNN interview this week, recent Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado asked for US help to “stop Maduro’s war” against the country. Does she want military intervention to dislodge the president? The political opponent did not respond directly, emphasizing instead that she wanted to see the influence of Russia, China, Cuba and Iran on the country reduced.
“Venezuela is an important country, with its geostrategic location and its natural resources,” observes M.me Mani. He is not unique in the region, but the fact that the leadership is distinctly authoritarian and does not have many allies in the region means that Maduro has somewhat painted himself into a corner. »
With the New York TimesTHE Washington PostAgence France-Presse and CNN
