US President Joe Biden said on Sunday that he was withdrawing from the US presidential election, endorsing Kamala Harris as his successor. In the process, the vice president said she intended to “win the Democratic nomination” in order to “beat Donald Trump” in November. With less than a month to go before the party’s convention, scheduled for August 19, nothing is a foregone conclusion for the 59-year-old Democrat, experts say.
“Today I want to give my full support and endorsement to Kamala to be our party’s nominee this year. Democrats, it’s time to come together and defeat Trump,” Joe Biden wrote on X on Sunday, announcing that he would now focus on his duties as president. The White House has also assured that he will serve out his term.
His rival responded on his social network, Truth Social, by writing that “Joe Biden the crook was not fit to be a candidate and (that) he is certainly not fit to hold office.” Kamala Harris will be “even worse” than Joe Biden, the Republican’s campaign team also quickly wrote.
Vice President Harris, for her part, praised the 81-year-old Democrat’s “selfless and patriotic act,” saying she would do “everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party — and unite my nation.”
“Natural heiress”
As vice president, Kamala Harris is in some ways the “natural” heir to Joe Biden, but not his “automatic” successor, explains Rafael Jacob, associate researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair’s Observatory on the United States.
Unlike what is written in the American Constitution in the event of the resignation, impeachment, incapacity or death of the president – the vice president immediately becomes president – there is no rule here dictating the procedure to follow in this situation.
“There is no manual for this,” says the political scientist. “We are in completely new territory.”
One thing remains certain: Kamala Harris’ position as vice president “does not guarantee her being the (Democratic) candidate,” says Rafael Jacob.
“It is not written anywhere that the president can impose his candidate (…), because there are delegates who have nevertheless voted beforehand,” continues Karine Prémont, deputy director of the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair and professor at the School of Applied Politics at the University of Sherbrooke.
The president’s support still has “significant” weight, especially since Kamala Harris “is the only one who has experience in the White House among the candidates being considered,” believes Mme Prémont. So, it’s definitely a definite advantage for her.”
Rain of praise from Democrats
After the publication of a letter from Joe Biden announcing that he was withdrawing “in the interest of (his) party and the country”, praise has continued to flow into the Democratic camp.
Their Senate leader, Chuck Schumer, hailed a “great patriot”, while former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi praised “one of the most important presidents in American history”.
Influential voices have also been raised within the Democratic ranks to rally to Mr.me Harris. Former President Bill Clinton and his wife, Hillary Clinton, a former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, said in a statement that they were “honored to join the President in supporting Vice President Harris.”
Other Democratic leaders, including Pete Buttigieg and Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor who had previously been tipped to replace Mr Biden, have also endorsed Mr Biden’s candidacy.me Harris. “I will do everything I can to help elect Kamala Harris as the 47the President of the United States,” Mr. Shapiro said on X.
Former President Barack Obama expressed his “confidence” in his party to establish “a process that will allow the emergence of an exceptional candidate,” without mentioning Kamala Harris.
And Justin Trudeau hailed “a great man,” “a partner of Canadians and a true friend.”
Reconfigure the race
While this support is considerable, experts point out that Kamala Harris did not stand out from the outgoing president in the polls on the possibility that he would pass the torch to her. Her lead over Joe Biden was until now “negligible”, according to researcher Rafael Jacob.
“There was no one who did better than Biden, or almost, says Professor Karine Prémont. That’s why he stayed.”
“It’s not like we’re replacing Biden with an option that’s solid,” says Rafael Jacob. “She’s not a solid candidate herself.” But the fact is that among the other potential candidates, “there’s no one who unites everyone right now,” the political scientist sums up.
It remains possible, however, that with the support of the outgoing president, Harris will have the necessary boost to climb in voting intentions. “There could be a significant mobilization effect,” according to Karine Prémont.
This “movement of enthusiasm and novelty” that would boost the morale of the Democratic troops is indeed likely, Mr. Jacob also thinks. “She could choose a running mate for example, and that would reconfigure the race.”
As of this writing, the Democratic Party had raised $30 million on Sunday — the party’s highest single-day haul in years. Harris has also launched a call for donations to support her candidacy.
It’s not like we’re replacing Biden with an option that’s solid. She’s not a solid candidate herself.
Towards an open convention?
The Democratic Party leader reaffirmed Sunday that there would be a “transparent and disciplined” process for selecting the Democratic candidate who will replace Joe Biden in the presidential election. Barack Obama warned Democrats that they will be “navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead.”
For Rafael Jacob, what is happening is the equivalent of a “leap into the void” for the Democratic Party, which has “no real plan B” established. “We don’t even know what the succession process will look like,” the researcher emphasizes.
Karine Prémont believes that the ins and outs should be known in the coming days, Joe Biden having indicated in his letter that he would address the nation “later this week”.
The possibility of a vote that would be held in early August, before the convention, should be confirmed this week, Mr. Jacob said. In that case, a candidate already nominated would be ratified at the convention, in Chicago, which would serve to put him forward.
Otherwise, a vote on August 19 by the approximately 4,000 Democratic Party delegates would result in an “old-fashioned convention,” as it was done before the democratization of the process, Jacob continues.
“This is perhaps the most crucial piece: When will the delegates vote?” Mr. Jacob asks.
“An open convention would definitely divide the party,” said Mr.me Prémont, who believes that “ultimately, for the unity of the party, to allow the rapid mobilization of forces, this new candidate (should be) actually designated before.”
With four months to go until the November election, this could “turn the tide a little bit,” the professor thinks. “It could actually help the Democratic Party,” concludes Karine Prémont.
With Olivier Du Ruisseau
