If the race for the White House has been underway for several months among the Republican candidates who are making a series of appearances to try to win the primary, the real start of the race will take place Monday evening, with the Iowa caucuses. Here is an overview to understand their importance.
1. What are caucuses?
Organizing a caucus – like what will be held in the Midwestern state – is very different from an actual primary.
Thus, it is not the voters who will have to go to the polls on Monday evening, but rather members of the Republican Party who will meet in small groups at the same time in schools, churches or even in private residences.
Each candidate vying to become the one who will face the elected Democrat has a representative, who will give a speech in his favor in order to convince members to vote for him.
Participants will then vote by writing the name of their candidate on a small piece of paper, which will send the chosen representative directly to the Republican convention to be held next July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where the Republican champion will be chosen.
2. Why are all eyes on Iowa?
As for more than 50 years, Iowa gets the ball rolling in the American elections and above all allows us to give a first idea of electoral trends, more concrete than the polls held until now.
This state, which represents only 1% of the American population, will therefore designate 40 delegates on Monday evening out of the 2,467 representatives who will come from all the states in July.
- Listen to the column of journalist Alexandre Moranville on the microphone of Yasmine Abdelfadel via QUB :
The other races will then quickly follow one another, with a primary held next week in New Hampshire, until “Super Tuesday” organized on March 5, where around fifteen states such as Texas or California will organize their primaries this daytime.
3. Trump, DeSantis and Haley: who is the favorite?
Six Republicans are still in the race to become the party’s representative in the presidential elections next November.
Three of them, however, stood out and will be scrutinized Monday evening: former President Donald Trump, the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and the former ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Nikki Haley.
According to the latest polls, Trump – who is currently facing justice – would be the big favorite and would obtain almost 50% of the Republican votes in Iowa, reported the New York Times. His two other main competitors would each collect around 20% or less of the voting intentions.
So, if the former president manages to run in Iowa in a landslide victory, it would mean he would remain the heavy favorite for the nomination. In any case, he did not hesitate on Sunday evening to encourage his supporters to come to these caucuses while the cold could discourage some of them.
“You can’t stay at home,” he told the crowd. “If you are sick as a dog (…), you cannot stay at home. Even if you vote and die.”
The real question would therefore be to know who will finish second in the Iowa caucuses and therefore represent the real threat to Trump.
In the short term, Nikki Haley could be her rival since she could win New Hampshire by seeking the votes of moderate Republicans. Conversely, if DeSantis can rally conservative Republicans to his cause, he could be the candidate to watch.
4. What about Democrats?
If Democrats and Republicans have always voted on the same date in Iowa, this is no longer the case.
Members of the Democratic Party in this state will therefore be able to choose between current President Joe Biden or Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson during a postal vote until February 19.
Few surprises are expected during this election since it should confirm the inauguration of Joe Biden, who is running for a second term at the White House.
