Inflation slowed in January in the United States, but was nevertheless disappointing, because it has not yet fallen below 3% as expected, while the question of purchasing power is central in the race for the House- White.
• Read also: Remuneration of Agropur bosses up 12%
• Read also: The US public debt is “unsustainable”, according to the president of the central bank
Prices increased 3.1% year-on-year in January, compared to 3.4% in December, according to the CPI index released Tuesday by the Labor Department.
However, this disappointed analysts, who hoped to see inflation fall below 3% for the first time since March 2021, when economic activity was recovering after the crisis caused by Covid-19. They were counting on 2.9%, according to the Market Watch consensus.
Over one month alone, the increase in prices is 0.3%, a little more than in December (0.2%), driven in particular by housing, which represents more than two thirds of this rebound.
So-called core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remains stable at 3.9% over one year. It is 0.4% over one month, up slightly compared to December.
Inflation is one of the main themes in the race for the White House, because the surge in prices has sharply reduced the purchasing power of households, both for supermarket shopping, for housing, or to fill gasoline tanks of their cars, often essential.
Democratic President Joe Biden, a candidate for re-election, regularly highlights the virtues of his economic policy, nicknamed “Bidenomics”, which, according to him, has allowed the economy to remain strong and favor the less well-off, while slowing inflation.
However, he is accused of pursuing an inflationary policy by former President Donald Trump, who hopes to return to the White House and is well placed to win the Republican Party nomination.
These inflation figures should also convince the American central bank (Fed) to be patient before beginning its monetary easing.
After raising its rates to their highest level in more than 20 years to slow demand and thus curb high inflation, it now plans to start lowering them in the coming months.
Market players were hoping for a first decline at the next meeting, on March 19 and 20, but those responsible for the institution continue to insist that they will need to have more solid confidence in the fact that the slowdown in inflation is durable.
The CPI index is the one on which, in particular, pensions are indexed. The Fed favors another measure of inflation, the PCE index, which it wants to bring down to 2% – a level considered healthy for the economy – and whose data for January will be published on February 29.
In December, PCE inflation remained stable at 2.6% year-on-year, but, excluding food and energy, fell to 2.9%, its lowest level in almost three years.
In the euro zone, inflation was 2.8% year-on-year in January, although there were strong disparities between countries. France is among the countries with the highest price increase, at 3.5%.
