As the US election year gets underway, it is becoming clear that it will take place under a constant threat of violence.
It’s hard to find common threads in Donald Trump’s political speech, but the violence and intimidation certainly are.
This omnipresence of violence will poison the political climate in the United States in this election year and it risks going badly.
A recurring theme
It is not new that violence occupies a preponderant place in the political universe of Donald Trump. As of 2016, its assemblies were often punctuated by violent incidents.
This glorification of violence is also evident in his apology for police brutality, his calls to open fire on migrants at the border or his invitations to merchants to shoot shoplifters on sight.
In addition to glorifying violence, his speech normalizes it. In his eyes, the rioters who manhandled the Capitol guards on January 6, 2021 were patriots whom he will hasten to pardon if he becomes president again.
If we add to this Trump’s tendency to dehumanize his opponents, whom he shamelessly describes as vermin to be eliminated, we have the recipe for an explosive cocktail.
Stochastic terrorism
No wonder everyone around the Trump lawsuits must receive special police protection. The threat of violence hanging over them is real.
This kind of situation has a name: stochastic terrorism, a climate of terror based on unhinged, radicalized and armed individuals who can act out at any time.
If Trump’s speech is calculated not to cross the threshold of explicit incitement to violence, the signals he sends are clearly perceived that way by his fanatical supporters and it is only chance that will determine where and the moment when one of them will believe himself justified in eliminating this “vermin” that the object of his cult commands him to target.
January 6, 2021 was no coincidence. Trump knew full well that the armed radicals he harangued would take his call to battle literally.
Intimidation and resignation
The climate of intimidation generated by this “stochastic terrorism” will profoundly affect this crucial year for American democracy.
In trials against Trump, potential witnesses or jurors will refrain from participating out of fear for their safety. Such fears also risk complicating the recruitment of electoral staff, especially following the misadventures of Shaye Moss and Ruby Freeman, in Georgia.
Among Republican elected officials, this climate of terror breeds resignation. During the second vote on Trump’s impeachment in 2021, several Republicans convinced of the ex-president’s guilt backed away because of threats from fanatical Trumpists. Over time, this fear gave way to resignation.
And it’s not likely to end on voting day. Trump is already raising the specter of violence in the event of defeat, just as he is threatening to respond with unprecedented force to demonstrations of discontent in the event of his victory.
