(Washington) Donald Trump is not yet the 47the President of the United States and he has already shaken up the international order by mistreating his European and Canadian allies, but the traditional American policy of rivalry and hostility against China and Russia should continue, experts say.
Likewise in the Middle East and in multilateral matters, specialists are betting on a certain continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations.
Robert Benson, of the Center for American Progress analysis center, thinks that Donald Trump has already been right to continue to “identify the threats posed by a revanchist Russia and an expansionist China”, in the wake of outgoing President Joe Biden.
But the next tenant of the White House “is completely missing the point by alienating our allies, by pushing the Europeans to distance themselves from the United States”, tackles Mr. Benson.
It must be said that Mr. Trump makes thunderous declarations one after the other.
In a press conference on January 7, he threatened to annex Greenland, under Danish sovereignty, demanded that NATO members increase their defense budget to 5% of their GDP, said that Canada should be the 51ste American state and warned that Washington could regain control of the Panama Canal.
“Adults in the Room”
During his first term (2017-2021), the Republican, renowned for his unpredictable behavior, was surrounded by those whom the press had nicknamed the “adults in the room”: his numerous advisers at the White House and Secretary of State. and Secretary of Defense.
For the new Trump administration, Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio – future national security adviser and secretary of state – are seen as more moderate and skillful Republicans than other future Trumpist secretaries.
Mike Waltz kicked in when ABC News questioned him Sunday about the credibility of the threats made by his boss: “He takes the threats we face very seriously,” he said, pointing Chinese shipping companies at the Panama Canal and Russian ships in the Arctic.
Donald Trump “will always keep all options on the table (…) unlike, it must be said, his predecessor” Joe Biden, he criticized.
But the outgoing president praised his record on foreign policy on Monday.
“America Stronger”
He judged that the United States was “in the lead in international competition” and would “never” be supplanted by China.
“America is stronger, our alliances stronger, our adversaries and competitors weaker,” he insisted, a way of implicitly criticizing Donald Trump, accused of having damaged transatlantic and transpacific relations.
Joe Biden also pleaded not to “abandon” Ukraine, while his successor threatened to interrupt military support.
But while Mr. Trump had promised to end the war “in 24 hours,” he is no longer so assertive.
His future envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is a respected retired military man, and Mike Waltz has spoken of continuing aid to Kyiv to guarantee it a better position in a diplomatic negotiation.
However, he demanded that Ukraine lower the age of mobilization to “address problems of shortage of military personnel”.
Continuity
European diplomats therefore think that there could be a form of continuity between the diplomacies of MM. Biden and Trump.
An Italian MP from the Democratic Party (center left), Lia Quartapelle, said she was pleasantly “surprised” by her recent visit with European parliamentarians to Washington.
The American Republicans met “had a clear idea of the interests of the United States while being open to discussion, starting with continued support for Ukraine,” she stressed.
As for the war in Gaza, Joe Biden assured Monday that an agreement was “on the verge” of being concluded.
And in an unprecedented move, his national security adviser Jake Sullivan insisted on “close coordination” between his outgoing Democratic administration and the next Republican one.
In multilateral matters, the former representative of Germany to the UN Christoph Heusgen remembers in the columns of the magazine Foreign Policy of a lunch in 2019 of the 15 ambassadors of the Security Council, received at the White House by a “very welcoming”, attentive Donald Trump, and who “devoted a lot of time to us”.
“You don’t do that if you think the United Nations is useless,” thinks the diplomat.
