Although we have the impression of having already experienced this scenario and noted the warning signs of a rout of the United States, the year 2024 will be decisive for the survival of a historic ally on which we are particularly dependent.
Trump and perpetual chaos
The month of January marks the start of the calendar of caucuses and primaries which serve to determine the identity of the candidates of the two major political parties for the presidential election.
If during this period which runs from January to June we are always preparing to cover one or two scandals, nothing has prepared us for what we will experience during the coming months.
Not only will Donald Trump’s setbacks in court mark the entire campaign, but the judgments rendered will influence the balance of power for several years.
You already knew that he is before the courts in New York (fraud), in Georgia (falsifying the 2020 results), in Florida (secret documents) as well as in Washington for his role in the assault on the Capitol on 6 January 2021.
To these historic cases, we must now add to this list two appeals before the Supreme Court. First, the highest court will have to rule on the eligibility of candidate Trump.
Under section 3 of 14e amendment, the states of Maine and Colorado ruled that Trump, because of having encouraged the January 6 assault, cannot be a candidate.
What will the Supreme Court say? Very smart who can predict the outcome. Despite everything, I venture to suggest that we will find a way out to avoid having to bear the odium of rejecting a candidate.
Either we will say that the office of president is not properly named in Section 3, or we will point out that Trump was never convicted of the insurrection, or we will redirect the final decision to elected officials in Congress.
The other big decision we expect from the Supreme Court is the one surrounding presidential immunity. We already know that this immunity protects him in civil matters, but does it extend to criminal matters? If that were to be the case, the president would be, in the United States, the equivalent of a king!
A stable democracy?
So once again we have several months to focus, whether we like or not, on Donald Trump and his supporters. It is disturbing and dangerous that such an individual monopolizes attention.
Meanwhile, who is talking about “current affairs”? Too few people. The machine is not completely paralyzed, but too often debates are drawn unnecessarily towards extremes.
Whether in foreign policy or domestic policy, Trump’s omnipresence constitutes an unhealthy distraction. I’d rather Biden beat him a second time, but if it’s the courts that send him to the sidelines, I’m not going to complain.
As Westerners, Canadians or Quebecers, we cannot afford a second term for Trump. The United States even less than us.
