Why this Trump-Poutine summit?
“Putin is not interested in a peace agreement or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but he does not want secondary sanctions either,” said Alexander Motyl, of Rutgers-Newrk University. So what to do to save time? “The answer is simple: you suggest to Trump, a notorious narcissist, a meeting where you are going to sit with him and chat,” he said.
The meeting was requested by Russian President Vladimir Putin, after his interview in Moscow with American emissary Steve Witkoff last week.
Donald Trump was getting impatient in the deadline for the past few months, he who had proud to be able to settle the war in Ukraine quickly. The American president had therefore launched an ultimatum to Russia in July: if no agreement to end the war in Ukraine was concluded before August 8, new sanctions would be imposed.
What about Ukrainian participation?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is not invited to the summit, which will take place in Anchorage, Alaska. Trump assured Wednesday that a tripartite meeting would be organized quickly thereafter. “It is a failed opportunity not to have insisted that the meeting included Zelensky,” said Liana Fix, researcher of the Council for Foreign relations specializing in European issues. Putin declined meetings with Zelensky in the past.
How do Ukrainian and European leaders react?
Zelensky went to Berlin on Wednesday. He participated in a call to the side of the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, with other European leaders. Trump and his vice-president JD Vance then joined the conversation.
The discussion was “constructive,” said Zelensky. “We hope that the central theme of the meeting will be a cease-fire,” he said. An immediate ceasefire. »»
Photo Ralf Hirschberger, agency France-Presse
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, during a joint press conference in Berlin, Wednesday
Certain guidelines have been mentioned by the European group, in the hope in particular that Trump does not open the door to a territorial concession – which he has done in the past, being thwarted by the Ukrainian refusal of a “exchange” of territories. To end the war, Putin asks that Ukraine gives up four partially occupied regions, in addition to Crimea, annexed in 2014.
Russia currently occupies 20 % of the territory of Ukraine.
“Russia could soften the tone, but I do not see how it could restore territories that it currently occupies,” said Sarah Ann Oates, from the University of Maryland. The large -scale Russian invasion began in 2022, but since 2014, Ukrainians have defended the regions illegally annexed by their neighbor.
“I don’t know what would be acceptable to the Ukrainians,” said Mme Oates. There is a physical and moral exhaustion, but also an anger that strengthens determination, after having lost so many people in the war. So I don’t think they would be ready to capitulate. But I’m not sure Trump understands Ukrainian nationalism. »»
The Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, also participated in a discussion on Wednesday with other leaders of the “volunteer coalition”, the allies of Ukraine, in anticipation of the summit.
What should you expect?
The American president will be there to “listen,” said the White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.
“We should not expect real progress towards a conflict resolution, but with a little luck, there will not be too much damage to compromise Ukraine,” says Mme Fix.
Photo Nanna Heitmann, Archives The New York Times
Russian President Vladimir Putin
There will be “very severe consequences” if Putin does not accept to end the war after Friday game, Trump threatened on Wednesday.
“We are in an unusual diplomatic territory, and it is very difficult to predict what Trump could do,” said Mr.me Oates, recalling his swelly meeting with Zelensky, at the White House, in February.
What does the summit have unusual?
“Usually it would take several weeks to organize such a summit,” says Diddy Hitchins, emeritus professor at the University of Alaska in Anchorage. The diplomats would study all possible scenarios and the responses to give, particularly in the case of a resolution to a war, explains the specialist in diplomacy and Russia. But Trump is known for his spontaneity, his distrust of experts and his confidence in his own negotiator capacities.
“It is seen with great apprehension by Europeans because it is perceived as a victory in itself (for Russia), that Vladimir Putin is invited to the United States for a high-level bilateral summit, with the American president,” said Mr.me Fix. The simple fact that this summit is organized without serious preliminary concession from Russia is already seen as a gain for it. »»
Russian forces have accelerated their offensive in Ukraine this week, announcing that they have won over 110 km2 -A first since 2024, according to the France-Presse agency
Why Alaska?
Putin is the subject of arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court. The United States is not members of it and therefore do not have the obligation to apply them, as is the case in Canada, for example.
“Alaska is the nearest and easiest place to access for Putin without going through international airspace,” notes Mme Hitchins. So if there was a problem that requires an emergency landing, the plane would be in American or Russian airspace. »»
The place also has symbol value. Russia sold the territory in the United States in 1867. It is a place far from the big centers, which does not have the official status of Washington.
With the France-Presse agency and the Canadian press
