The former president’s victory in this first round of the Republican primaries does not mean that his return to the White House is inevitable.
In the wake of the vote in Iowa on Monday, the media were quick to characterize Donald Trump’s victory, with 51% of the 110,298 votes, as triumphant or overwhelming.
Some analysts even conclude that this is a first step in his inevitable march towards a return to the White House. Oh the engines!
A crushing victory?
Yes, this result confirms that Donald Trump is a clear favorite for the Republican nomination — we already knew that — but no, it is not an “overwhelming” victory and it does not mean that he is sailing blithely towards victory in november.
Trump is ahead of his closest rivals by around thirty points. This is indeed more than for all the other caucuses which have not fielded a sitting president since Iowa took over the starting square of the primaries in 1972.
On the other hand, Trump insists on calling himself “President Trump” and, compared to everyone who ran in Iowa with that title, his performance is the worst ever. Almost half of the participants preferred someone else. Considering that almost all of them supported Trump in 2020, that’s a lot.
The limits of a cult
It is true that the Trumpist base in Iowa has all the attributes of a cult. According to polls, nearly two-thirds of caucuses believe the “Big Lie” that the election was stolen from Trump in 2020 and a similar proportion would support it if he were found guilty of a crime.
But worship has its limits.
Even among those who believe Trump’s lies and would forgive his crimes, there are some who prefer other candidates. Moreover, it is far from certain that his lies and victim complaints will be as effective in the general election as in the primary bubble.
New Hampshire’s turn
The importance given to the Iowa caucuses is out of proportion to their real significance.
Since 1972, only three presidents have been elected after winning contested caucuses in Iowa: Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. This state is very unrepresentative of the American electorate. There are few visible minorities, below-average education and a high proportion of evangelical Christians, a group strongly linked to Trump.
We will know more about the Republican race after next Tuesday’s vote in New Hampshire, where Nikki Haley is on an upward trajectory and her victory remains improbable, but not inconceivable.
As for Ron DeSantis, he will not recover from his defeat in Iowa, where he invested enormously in 2023 only to see his support inexorably melt away.
If Trump wins, his supporters and apologists – not to mention all those who systematically underestimate his Democratic opponent – will be sure to exaggerate the significance of this victory. If Nikki Haley causes the upset, obviously, Trump will plead cheating and the knives will fly low until “Super Tuesday” on March 5.
