Formally found guilty in a criminal trial, Donald Trump is more than ever an anomaly in American politics, but we must remember that he already was.
The historic verdict is in: for the first time, a former president has been found criminally guilty.
Even if this verdict will be a heavy burden for him, the outcome of the election remains uncertain and the electorate will react in a fairly… normal way.
An extraordinary candidate
Normally, this verdict would mean the end of an electoral campaign but, as we already knew, Donald Trump is not a normal politician.
Is it normal that a man who faced 88 criminal charges and who will now carry the title of convicted felon is still seen by millions of Americans as the candidate of law and order?
Is it normal that a serial adulterer who has boasted of multiple sexual assaults and who collects accusations of rape is adored by the religious right?
Is it normal for an heir whose career is a long succession of bankruptcies and frauds to be perceived by his supporters as a business genius?
Is it normal that a late seventy-year-old, who snoozes during his trial and whose speeches are totally insane, succeeds in convincing millions of Americans that it is his opponent and not him who has an age problem?
Is it normal that a politician who sprinkles his speeches with Nazi references and who has boundless admiration for Vladimir Putin and the other despots of this world can proclaim with impunity that it is his opponents who threaten democracy?
I’m going through some and the best ones. Obviously, this is not normal. And yet, despite the hard blow he has just suffered, it is not entirely inconceivable that he will win this election.
A normal election
To unravel this mystery, we must first recognize that Trump benefits from the social norms he has spent his life transgressing.
He constantly disparages the justice system and its officers, but he has long benefited from the standard of presumption of innocence and all the rights that the Constitution guarantees to the accused; and he will continue to benefit from it during his calls.
Since he transformed the Republican Party into a cult of his personality, he has benefited from the conventional media standard of balance that has normalized, even trivialized, his antidemocratic behavior.
In short, even if there is not much normal about the Trump campaign, as in 2016 and 2020, it is possible to anticipate the results by looking at “normal” factors such as partisan identifications (essentially immovable), approval of the president’s performance (unfavorable), state of the economy (the economy is good but perceptions are bad), and party electoral organization (Biden advantage).
These “normal” trends point to a close result. The New York verdict adds a layer of abnormality to this election but it will not eliminate the factors that led millions of Americans to set their sights on Donald Trump.
Photo of the week
Getty Images via AFP
Donald Trump, as he leaves the New York court which found him guilty of 34 criminal charges, Thursday afternoon, in the company of his lawyer Todd Blanche.
Quote of the week
“I’m a very innocent man… It’s far from over,” said Donald Trump, reacting to his guilty verdict at the end of the criminal trial which had just granted him the unenviable title of convicted criminal on Thursday afternoon.
Number of the week
34
That’s the number of criminal charges Donald Trump faced that all resulted in guilty verdicts. The trial lasted more than seven weeks, but the jury only needed a dozen hours of deliberation to reach this verdict, which speaks volumes about the strength of the evidence presented by prosecutor Alvin Bragg.
The lie detector
“I’m here because of the crook Joe Biden. It is purely its belligerent instrumentalization (weaponization) (of the justice system). (…) They should have started this trial seven years ago, not in the middle of an electoral campaign where I am in the lead by many,” said Donald Trump, at the end of his trial, Tuesday May 28.
FAKE
The vast majority of Donald Trump’s public statements coming out of his trial were either blatant falsehoods or insults to the judge and prosecutors. There is no evidence that President Biden was involved in this trial, the charges of which were approved by a citizens’ jury.
