Over the past four years, speculation has abundant in the birth of a multi -polar world system, which will make China a big role, and therefore many countries have tended to consolidate their various relations with China, although trade and economic relations have topped the agenda of relations with China, but the matter is not without political connotations The economy and politics are two sides of the same coin.
Through this vision, it seems that the Gulf states were launched in increasing their commercial and economic dealings with China, during the mandate of the dispostered American President Joe Biden, and we found advanced steps from some Gulf countries, such as the Saudi Finance Minister’s announcement, that his country is studying the possibility of selling a share of oil in the currency The Chinese yuan, which some have interpreted at the time, is a new orientation to abandon the pricing of oil in dollars globally.
During the crisis of high oil prices in the international market, due to the Russian war on Ukraine, US President Biden went out of OPEC Plus to raise the ceiling of production, in order to reduce prices, but OPEC Plus insisted on its approach to reducing the production ceiling, for the sake Maintaining prices.
These scenes reflected a state of shift in US -Gulf relations, some have read it as a new stage, which reflects the change in the balance of global powers, and the bias of a new global system scene in the form of formation, and that there is a Gulf shift towards China.
However, the new one, after the return of Donald Trump to the authority in America on January 20, 2025, was followed by new things that may affect the course of the development of trade and economic relations of the Gulf states with China, making us expect these relations to decline significantly, and they are transferred to America.
Days before Trump officially took power, Emirati businessman Hussein Sajani announced that he would invest $ 20 billion in America in the data centers sector. After Trump took over the authority, Saudi Arabia’s intention was to pump investments in America by about 600 billion dollars, and Trump stated in his speech to the Davos Forum, that he would ask the Saudi king to increase the amount to a trillion dollars.
Mohamed Al -Hardan, a representative of the Qatar Investment Authority in the Technology Sector at the Davos Forum recently, announced that Trump will revive the investment in the technology sector, which means his country’s willingness to pump investments in this sector during the coming period.
Trump is largely counting on the partners to increase their shares to buy American products, especially weapons, or transfer investments to America, and it is known that the Gulf states are the largest buyer of weapons in the Middle East, which means that the purchase of American weapons by the Gulf states may be one Important outlets, to increase commercial and economic transactions between the two parties.
The matter may extend to the demand for the employment of the balances of Gulf sovereign funds, in the purchase of American bonds, in light of China’s exit from them over the past years, in a remarkable way, and the other path may be pumping Gulf investments in other economic activities inside America, especially since Trump announced Its strategy to expand investments in the oil and gas sector within America.
It is worth noting that the balances of the Gulf sovereign funds may approach 4 trillion dollars at the end of 2024, which is a good paper to employ the relations of the Gulf states with all external parties, and during the next four years, we will see, the direction of the investments of these funds, and will Trump succeed in turning its destination for America, And its departure from China?
The fate of the free trade zone agreement
According to what was published in the media at the end of December 2024, the free trade zone agreement between the Gulf and China countries has reached the final stages, which means that commercial and economic relations between the two countries will take a more positive trend than it is, as negotiations The two parties on this agreement took more than two decades, but the agreement has not yet signed.
The value of the trade exchange between China and the Gulf states reached a great increase in. The value of the trade exchange between the two parties amounted to 287 billion dollars at the end of 2023, and Saudi Arabia acquires about 40% of the value of the trade exchange of the Gulf countries with China.
It has been observed that economic and commercial relations between the two parties have been dominated by the oil trade in a large way, although some Gulf countries are counting on attracting Chinese investments to them, especially in Saudi Arabia, through its major project “NEOM”.
According to the private data for trade exchange between the two parties during the 2014-2021 period, the trade balance was inclined to the Gulf states during the improvement of oil prices, while in the years when oil prices fell in the international market, the trade balance showed a surplus in favor of China, as is the case in years ( 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020).
It relies heavily on the free trade zone agreement to increase economic and trade relations between the Gulf and China countries, as this agreement is expected to enter many economic activities for the framework of economic cooperation, such as services, technology, artificial intelligence and robots.
In light of the nearby experience, the relationship of the European Union to China, where an initial agreement was concluded between them for investment before 2020, and he was about to enter into force, but with Biden’s coming and improving his relations with the European Union, he succeeded in freezing this agreement, as if it were not.
Will Trump repeat the same experience of the relationship of the Gulf states with China, regarding the negotiations of the Trade Agreement in particular, and trade and economic relations in general?
It is noteworthy that Biden provided the European Union advantages that make him freeze his agreement to invest with China, and the question is what can Trump offer to the Gulf states, in order to reduce its economic and trade relations with China, or freeze the negotiations of the free trade zone agreement?
China strategy
Undoubtedly, international relations do not leave one party to determine their paths, but there are others, seeking to achieve their interests, and here is China, and it is important to know its orientation of its relations with the countries of the Middle East, which includes the Gulf states.
One of the analyzes published in the International Politics Magazine – issued by the Al -Ahram Foundation in Cairo – has gone to the fact that China has two scenarios on its relationship with the Middle East countries with Trump’s coming of power in 2025, the first to enhance the Chinese presence, by increasing trade and economic relations, and infrastructure projects within the framework of a road project Silk, but the possibility of this scenario failed more than its success, as the writer went, due to the state of the coalition that exists between the countries of the Middle East and America.
The second scenario is the calm and balance in the relationship of China with the countries of the region, and perhaps calculated withdrawal, while preserving trade and economic relations, so that China does not lose its relations with the countries of the region, provided that this situation is only dependent on the period of Trump’s presence in power.
