The number of ships passing through the Suez Canal decreased by 85% in the past six months due to the repercussions of the war on the Gaza Strip and the ongoing political tensions, especially the crisis in the Red Sea, while the number of ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope route (South Africa) more than doubled, according to For Marine Traffic data collected by Anadolu Agency.
Since the Yemeni Houthi group intensified its attacks on ships linked to Israel in the Red Sea in response to its ongoing war on the Gaza Strip, especially since the end of last year, the region has witnessed a change in the dynamics of maritime trade.
Most shipping companies using the Suez Canal – the shortest sea route between Asia and Europe, which represents about 15% of the volume of global maritime trade – have switched to the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa.
alternative
“The alternative was to go around the Cape of Good Hope,” said Tom Steiner, sales manager at UK-based logistics company Westbound. “A lot of shipping lines offered a temporary service to fill the gap that they thought would take a few months, and this was supposed to be a solution.” “Only a temporary solution.”
The total number of commercial ships, including container ships, liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, dry and wet bulk cargo, and dry bulk carriers in the Suez Canal, declined from 1,094 last November to 923 last December, when the Houthis began intensifying their attacks.
Ships passing through the canal fell to 233 last January, 94 last February, and 85 last March. Last month, 159 ships used the Suez Canal, representing a sharp decline of 85% in traffic in the region. According to Anatolia’s calculations based on Marine Traffic data.
Egyptian Planning Minister Hala Al-Saeed said last month that Suez Canal revenues had declined by 50% amid escalating tensions in the Red Sea.
Movement at the Cape of Good Hope
Ship traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait declined by 60.7% in the past few months, and the strait witnessed the passage of 341 ships last November, before it decreased to 310 last December and 189 last January.
The number of ships in the Strait decreased to 151 last February, 152 last March, and 134 last April.
The data showed that the number of ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope reached 1,682 last November and 1,800 last December. However, this number rose to 2,699 last January and 2,728 last February.
2,922 ships passed through the Cape of Good Hope route last March, and the number did not change much last April at 2,873.
Maritime trade through the Cape of Good Hope has grown by 125% in the past six months, reflecting diversions from the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The number of LNG containers and tankers increased by 260% and 180% during this period, respectively.
Westbound Logistics Services said: “Most shipping lines use small ships to transport empty containers to the Far East, which has led to the problem of containers getting out of place. Containers have longer transit times on the water, as they take a longer route on ships to return to China.” “And there are not many of them that come back to China.
The company pointed out that in a season in which European countries are preparing for the busy summer months, and many ships reach the peak season, the demand for containers in the United Kingdom, for example, is increasing.
“However, there are not enough of them, and this is pushing prices higher and higher,” she added.
Shipping rates
Shipping rates could remain high over the next three to four months.
Westbound Logistics Services Company said that shipping prices rose from an average level of between 1,000 and 1,500 dollars per container to about 7,500 and 8,000 dollars during this period, but it indicated that shipping volumes did not increase.
“Everyone is shipping roughly the same amount of goods, but prices are rising with limited capacity and low availability of containers. Everyone is now competing for the small number of containers that are actually left. They will remain until the next day,” she said. “It is 3 to 4 months in terms of higher rates,” she said. Pointing out that the situation is taking longer than expected.
She continued, “It is not known how long the Suez Canal and the Red Sea will remain out of service, because all of this stems largely from political tensions. Until that is resolved, there will be turmoil.”
However, she noted that the only way things could improve is if shipping lines could set delivery dates based on the adoption of the Cape of Good Hope route if they saw that the situation would continue in the long term.
