The World Bank expected today, Tuesday, that the weak global growth, which is due to the reasons for trade disturbances, will lead to a decrease in the prices of international primary commodities 12% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026, to reach its lowest levels in the twenty -first century at the real value.
The latest World Bank’s report on (Promotes of Primary Commodities Markets) showed that the prices of these commodities and the amended in light of inflation will decline to their average between 2015 and 2019 during the next two years, which represents the end of the boom in the price of economic recovery from the Korona and the Russian -Ukrainian war in 2022.
This decrease may reduce the risk of inflation in the near term, which is the risk of high new American customs duties and increasingly increasing commercial barriers, but it may also have negative consequences for developing economies that export primary commodities.
The most affected developing countries
“The high prices of initial goods were a gift for many developing economies, two -thirds of which are countries that export these goods,” Edremit Gil said in a statement.
He continued: “But we are now witnessing the highest volatility in prices for more than 50 years … The pairing of severe price volatility with its decline is a warning of trouble.”
He added that these countries should liberate trade whenever possible, restore financial discipline, and provide a more suitable environment for business to attract private capital.
The World Bank report stated that the increase in energy prices increased globally by more than two percentage points in 2022, but the decrease in prices in 2023 and 2024 helped reduce it.
The report stated that the energy prices are expected to decline 17% to the lowest level in 5 years before it decreased 6% in 2026.
The following are the expectations of the most prominent commodity prices:
Oil: Brent crude prices will be 64 dollars per barrel in 2025, a decrease of $ 17 from 2024, and only $ 60 a barrel in 2026 amid the abundance of supply and low demand, which is due to reasons, including the rapid trend towards electric cars in China, the largest car market in the world. Brent crude was trading at $ 64.80 a barrel early Tuesday.
CoalIts prices are expected to decrease 27% in 2025, and an additional 5% in 2026, with coal consumption growth slowdown in developing economies.
Food: Its prices are expected to decrease by 7% in an additional 2025 and 1% in 2026, but this will not contribute much to reducing food insecurity in some countries most vulnerable to this risk with the contraction of humanitarian aid and the funeral of armed conflicts of severe hunger.
gold: The World Bank report expects that gold prices will record a new high level in 2025 with investors searching for safe havens for capital amid increased uncertainty, but the price will settle in 2026.
