(Washington) There are only a few hours left in the American Congress to adopt the federal state budget, at the risk of seeing the United States knowing, from Wednesday 01 (Eastern time) a progressive “Shutdown”, that is to say the closure of certain public services, resulting in disturbances for many sectors.
Why a paralysis?
On the one hand, the Republicans offer an extension of the current budget until the end of November. On the other hand, Democrats want to obtain the recovery of hundreds of billions of dollars in health expenditure, especially in the “Obamacare” health insurance program for households in the popular classes, which the Trump administration has planned to eliminate with its “large and beautiful budgetary law” adopted in July.
And the risk seems real: according to the chief of the Democratic minority in the House of Representatives, Hakeem Jeffries, “considerable and significant differences” exist between the two camps.
Photo Jim Watson, Agence France-Presse Archives
The chief of the Democratic minority in the House of Representatives, Hakeem Jeffries, and the chief of the minority in the Senate, Chuck Schumer
Last March, when the threat of a “Shutdown” already hovered, the Republicans had refused to initiate dialogue on the huge budget cuts and the dismissal of thousands of civil servants.
Ten Democratic senators had then reluctantly decided to vote for the text of the Republicans, in order to avoid federal paralysis. Republicans must rally at least seven democrats to avoid it again.
What consequences?
The situation varies according to the category of government agents. Those considered to be “essential” must continue to come to work, but without being paid. This concerns soldiers in active service, security forces, border control or even air controllers, but also maintenance of electrical networks or hospital medical care.
For “non -essential” agents, paralysis leads to partial unemployment, without remuneration, until a budget is voted. Concretely, this implies the closure of national parks and museums, more time to pass security in airports, a reduction in food or the environment controls as well as disturbances for certain food aid programs.
Finally, expenses related to pensions or health programs for low -income and elderly people (Medicare and Medicaid programs) should be maintained, but requests for registration postponed, specifies on its site the committee for a responsible federal budget (CFRB), a Bipartisan organization. He estimated that 10,000 daily requests had been postponed during the previous “Shutdown” in 2018.
Another consequence: the publication of economic statistics could be delayed, increasing uncertainty.
But this paralysis is “a complex operation, which implies preparation and experienced people to set up it,” recalled the CEO of the NGO Partnership for Public Service at a telephone conference, Max Stier.
“Three -quarters of the expenses are maintained. Americans will not be faced with a total judgment of public services, “he said, adding, however, that” the damage caused is often more insidious “, notably by stopping” long-term investments necessary for our government in the long term “.
Effects all the more marked if the presidency makes its threats: in the event of “Shutdown”, the reduction in the workforce of civil servants, unemployed, could become permanent, recently threatened the director of the White House budget, Russell Vought.
The cost for the US economy could, on the other hand, be severe: according to the Nationwide insurance company, each week of paralysis could reduce growth by 0.2 percentage points.
How long can it last?
The longest “Shutdown” in the history of the United States, and also the latest, lasted 35 days, in December 2018 and January 2019, under the chairmanship of Donald Trump. On average, since the first in 1976, paralysis, however, only lasted eight days.
In fact, however, paralysis can last as long as the standoff continues if no camp decides to take a step towards the other. Especially since it is generally a very unpopular situation, which pushes the Republicans as the Democrats to refine the responsibility of the blocking.
Just over a year from the mid-term elections in November 2026, during which the presidential majority could be questioned, political considerations could take precedence.
