The threat returns punctually in the United States: the minority party in the Senate is threatening to hinder a vote linked to budgetary measures, causing government paralysis. Will Democrats take this risk, while the deadline of 1er October approach? Here is what the mechanism is and what are the consequences.
What is this government paralysis?
THE shutdownas the Americans call it, occurs when the Senate fails to adopt a majority a budgetary resolution before a certain deadline, the next being on September 30 at 11:59 p.m. The budget is blocked, which leads to the temporary closure of agencies deemed non -priority and the layout of hundreds of thousands of federal employees. Different services may be disrupted, such as air traffic or food aid programs. The Democrats brandish this possibility hoping to convince the Republicans to modify the resolution to preserve health programs that mature.
But don’t the Republicans have the majority in the Senate?
Yes, Donald Trump’s party occupies 53 of the 100 seats. But to put an end to the debates and go to the vote, it takes the agreement of 60 senators – the strategy of extending discussions is commonly called filibuster in English, or parliamentary obstruction. “Republicans could eliminate this practice and go to the vote, but it would be a big break with previous practices,” said Benjamin Schneer, associate professor of public policies at the Harvard Kennedy School. A simple majority of 51 votes is indeed required to modify the rules of the Senate. If other administrations have threatened in the past to use this “nuclear option”, none has yet used it.
What political calculation should the parties do?
“Very often, the party which is considered responsible for paralysis is not popular; It is perilous, on the political level, ”says Schneer. It can be the party which refuses to support the proposal, or the one who insists for a measure, he specifies, recalling the longest episode of government paralysis in the United States, in 2018-2019. He had lasted 34 full days. The Democrats denounced the allocation of funds for the famous wall on the Mexican border, on which Trump insisted. “Given the turn of events, I think public opinion perceived Trump as the person responsible for paralysis,” adds Schneer.
But supporting unpopular measures with its base can also be damaging. Last March, the chief of the Democrats in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, had suffered strong criticism for his support for a budgetary text, allowing, with nine other colleagues, to avoid government paralysis.
The Democratic Senator had indicated that he wanted to “minimize the damage that the Trump administration will (IT) suffer from the American people”, in the midst of important cups of Elon Musk and his team in the Federal Administration. And wish to avoid giving “the keys to the city, the state and the country” to Musk and Trump.
“In general, government paralysis moves, at least temporarily, the power of the legislative to the executive,” says Charles Hunt, from the Boisse State University, in Idaho. The administration thus has more latitude about the government’s functions and agencies which continue to operate during government paralysis, which makes it possible to reassign resources. »»
Since his arrival, Trump has already ignored certain rules, drawing prosecution – in particular by redirecting funds already allocated by the Congress. “Paralysis does not really extend powers: it becomes illegal to spend money unless it is necessary, for questions of human life, for example,” said David Super, of Georgetown University Law Center. We can however expect Trump to assert his priorities – his desire to counter irregular immigration, especially – as being essential. “Democrats are really between the tree and the bark,” says Hunt.
What if it continues?
Traditionally, paralysis lasts a few days. The more it extends, the more visible the damage, the more political pressure becomes important. “If it lasts two or three days, there is not much impact, but the more time is, the more things left in terms of plan, and the less you become able to react if there is a problem, like an emergency linked to a hurricane or an earthquake, for example,” said Mr. Super. It can also help to destabilize the economy, already shaken by the last months of uncertainty.
“It seems that the Trump administration has shown that it is not seeing any problem sowing chaos and upsetting the normal functioning of the government,” said Schneer. A memo sent Wednesday evening to federal agencies raises fears of massive – permanent – dismissals – in the event of paralysis. “It does not seem exaggerated to think that the administration considers it as an opportunity to fire even more civil servants, and that the image it wants to give is that paralysis suits it,” adds Schneer.
