On January 25, 2025, the ESCWA and UNCTAD Organization published a recent report on the Syrian economy, entitled “Syria at a crossroads: towards a stable transition.”
The report deals with the decline in the Syrian economy over 12 years, and clarifies the scenarios of the Syrian economy’s performance during the coming period, and among those scenarios, the recovery scenario, which is based on several assumptions, are reconstruction, implementing governance reforms, and securing sufficient international assistance, with Focus on agriculture, industry and energy.
The recovery scenario expects that the Syrian economy will reach 80% of the GDP before the war provided that the growth rate of 13% is achieved throughout the period from 2024-2030, and in the event of this, the per capita GDP will be half of what it was in 2010.
In order to achieve the full domestic product of the Syrian economy, what was before the war at a growth rate of 5%, it will be in 2036, while the restoration of the per capita output of the output of what it was before the war will require an annual growth rate of 7.5%, and this takes until 2041 .
As for the expectation that the average per capita domestic product will reach $ 5,000, by 2035, this requires an annual growth rate of 20%.
But the report, despite its importance, was not subjected to how to finance the recovery scenario, which is a very important issue. The report indicated only that sufficient international aid is securing, and can international aid achieve the hope of a state in development, or even recovery?
Hence, after the revolution, the Syrian state is facing a major challenge related to the management of financing to manage the country during the next stage, whether for the ongoing or investment spending, in light of the requirements of significant expenses and high aspirations for the people after the revolution, and this is met with severe fog in the ability of revenues to achieve this.
Balance of the ousted system is unrealistic
The website of the Economic and Social Planning Council in Syria refers to budget data in 2025, a budget that was approved by the ousted system, and therefore it is unrealistic for the current situation, after the image, this budget does not include spending on the entire needs of the Syrian people, nor does it include reconstruction .
The 2025 budget for Syria, which was prepared by the defunct regime’s government, was estimated at the size of 52.6 trillion pounds ($ 3.5 billion, according to the exchange rate at the time), and it included 37 trillion pounds ($ 2.4 billion) for current spending, and about 15.6 trillion pounds ($ 1.1 billion ) For investment spending.
Through the statement published on the website of the Economic and Social Planning Council, it was found that the value of public revenues was not indicated, the value of the deficit or the surplus of the budget.
Budget and the social and economic role of the state
The state’s tasks assigned to it requires providing financing to carry out the services that achieve the tasks and goals of the state, even the role of the state in the light of the concept of the guardian, with limited jobs (external defense, internal security, the judiciary, and external relations) requires financing to do so.
Facing government decisions
The current Syrian administration issued a set of decisions regarding the economic situation, all of which relate to the financial situation, the first of which is to raise the customs value on some imported goods, which was met with great rejection (as it was considered about 5 or 6 times what it was before the revolution), especially behavior Merchants who hide the goods, and this led to a temporary raising of prices, forcing the Syrian administration to announce the decision review.
The second decision relates to the separation of some employees associated with the Assad regime, and to reduce the burden on the public budget to pay the salaries of its employees, where it was noted that a good number is specific in unreal jobs, but this matter called for some to say that the current administration is a temporary administration, not from Its powers separate the state workers.
The third matter related to those controls for the segments benefiting from the decision to increase salaries by 400%, (the cost of increasing salaries is estimated at 1.65 trillion Syrian pounds, equivalent to 127 million dollars) as some voices demanded that this increase include all workers in the country, while the Syrian administration goes until they are There are conditions and controls to benefit from that increase.
A final thing is related to the government’s decision to raise the prices of bread supported by the government, as this decision objected to several categories, especially those areas that were under the authority of Assad, due to their weak income.
By pursuing the management of the financial issue of the new Syrian administration, regarding the state administration, it was noted that it depends heavily on external aid.
Aid does not build a state
There is no model for a country based on aid, or has relied on it permanently. Rather, countries are based on their sovereign or regular revenues through their practice of some economic activities, and the arrival of some aid to Syria under the new administration and after its revolution, but it is temporary, and it cannot be built on it.
Without taxes of all kinds, the financial system will not exist, and the state will not be able to play its role and the jobs assigned to the government.
The current situation that witnesses liquidity in the factional demands is only obstacles to building the Syrian state, and disruption to reach a balanced financial situation.
Keeping the current situation, that the aid continues as it is all the time, and work to increase it at a pace that suits the increase in obligations, which is impossible to happen, and the second alternative is for the Syrian administration to maintain the current situation and resort to loans to finance its financing needs, and thus has judged itself To be hostage to aid.
The solution is that real reforms take place on the state’s financial structure, with regard to taxes of all kinds, as many countries depend on taxes by more than 50% to finance the budget.
