The White House announced its renewed interest in the Western Hemisphere in its National Security Strategy, published at the end of November. The January 3 operation in Venezuela fits with this vision. What else does this document reveal about the direction of the Trump administration?
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First, what is the purpose of publishing the National Security Strategy?
A law requires the White House to produce its National Security Strategy at least once during a term. The report is sent by the president to Congress. The executive power thus transmits its vision to the legislative branch – responsible for voting on budgets and laws. “It’s sort of a general overview of the situation in the country, from the administration’s point of view,” says Jeffrey Legro, professor of political science at the University of Richmond, Virginia.
Should the administration then stick to the broad guidelines set out?
No. Especially since priorities can change over the course of crises. “This is not what I would call an operational document; each action is not evaluated to see whether or not it fits with the National Security Strategy,” specifies Mr. Legro.
The Strategy, on the other hand, offers interesting insight into the administration’s vision. As the report is produced by several hands, it reflects the sometimes divergent interests of those surrounding the president. “What we hear is that there seems to have been a big debate between those who want to place Asia as a priority and those who want to place the Western Hemisphere as a priority,” notes Mr. Legro.
The report is usually accompanied by a National Defense Strategy, produced by the Department of Defense, which has not yet been unveiled.
How does the capture of Maduro in Venezuela fit into this vision?
The Strategy clearly emphasizes the importance of the United States establishing its influence on this side of the Greenwich meridian. “We want a hemisphere whose governments cooperate with us against narcoterrorists, cartels and other transnational criminal organizations,” the document reads. Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, are accused in particular of narcoterrorism.
PHOTO ADAM GRAY, REUTERS ARCHIVES
Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, escorted as they head to court in Manhattan on January 5
Donald Trump did not hide his administration’s aims on Venezuelan oil after the operation, also in line with the direction of the White House. “Restoring American energy dominance (in oil, gas, coal and nuclear) and relocating necessary key energy components is a top strategic priority,” reads the Strategy.
How does it differ from reports from other administrations?
The return of a sort of Monroe Doctrine – an 1823 policy by President James Monroe in which he warned Europe against interference in the Western Hemisphere – is new. In the Strategy unveiled during Trump’s first term in 2017, there was much discussion of the threat presented by North Korea and jihadist terrorist groups. Russia, Syria, China and Iran were also major sources of concern.
The threats from these adversaries of the United States are still mentioned, but in a more succinct manner. The Middle East, like Africa, occupies a lesser place in the Strategy. Cyberattacks and biological threats too.
However, we find priorities common to the two Trump administrations: “peace through strength”, border security, the importance of customs duties to defend the economic interests of the United States.
And the allies?
The comments about allies are particularly unusual. The United States wants to help Europe “recover its past greatness”, underlines the Strategy, while “certain NATO member countries will become predominantly non-European” in the coming decades. The Strategy expresses concern about a “civilizational erasure” of Europe and denounces left-wing ideologies – attached to climate change, its migration policies and censoring hate speech, in particular.
“This shows that the United States is seeking to exert influence not only on the foreign policy of its traditional allies, but also on their domestic programs,” underlines Jennifer Welsh, director of the Center for the Study of Peace and International Security at McGill. Countries like Canada should take note, she says. “We have to recognize that the United States now views its foreign policy as being guided by a form of right-wing populism, an ideology,” she adds. And we also see a reflection in the Strategy that the United States no longer seems to operate according to the paradigm of friends versus enemies, as before, but rather seems to divide the world between strong and weak. »
In 2025, we must put an end to the perception that NATO “is an alliance in perpetual expansion”, underlines the document – taking up an idea expressed by Russia. While in 2017, the Trump administration reiterated its commitment to the treaty that unites NATO members and welcomed the contribution of European countries in the fight against terrorism. While emphasizing the need for each country to assume their financial share to ensure common interests.
What about America? First of all ?
“America first” is a vision dear to Trump’s base, which opposes getting bogged down in costly foreign conflicts. In an interview with The Atlantic last spring, the president indicated that he was the one who decided the meaning of the slogan, since he himself had made it his policy. Care is taken in the National Security Strategy to specify that it is based on “what works for America – or, in two words, “America First””. Interventions in the Western Hemisphere are presented as a way to ensure security on American soil.
We will have to see if Trump’s supporters embrace this idea if it proves costly.
