Tehran – Many Iranian economic sectors have been greatly affected since the imposition of economic sanctions on Iran in 2006, through the escalation of the situation after the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018.
Despite the great economic pressures that resulted in a decline in oil revenues and high inflation, the Iranian government sought to reduce dependence on imports through policies aimed at achieving self -sufficiency.
Al -Jazeera Net highlights in this report the impact of economic sanctions on the Iranian economy, in addition to Iran’s efforts to enhance its local production across various sectors, such as agriculture, industry and medicines, as well as the challenges facing these policies in the context of the current economic and political conditions.
What is the extent of the economic crisis resulting from the sanctions?
1- The decline in Iranian oil exports
Since the imposition of US sanctions in light of the policy of maximum pressure in 2018, Iranian oil exports have declined significantly, and according to the Iranian Tasnim Agency, oil constituted more than 70% of the total state revenues before the sanctions, but after the tightening of the sanctions, exports fell from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2017 to about one million barrels per day in 2020, and sometimes to less than 500 thousand barrels per day at some time, according to sources of sources Like “Aquaria”.
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2- Economic stagnation and stagnation
The significant decline in oil exports led to a decrease in government revenues, which directly affected the national economy, and also caused a decrease in the value of the Iranian riyal against foreign currencies in a significant increase in prices.
According to the Iranian Central Bank, the inflation rate in Iran reached about 40% in 2020, which affected the purchasing power of citizens, and the report of the “Economy News” website confirmed that the prices of basic commodities such as food and fuel increased unprecedentedly.
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3- The decline in GDP
The Iranian GDP diluted significantly due to the sanctions, and according to the reports of the newspaper “Dunaya Economy”, Iran’s gross domestic product in 2020 amounted to about 240 billion dollars, compared to $ 445 billion in 2017, and this decrease reflects the impact of sanctions on most economic sectors, including industry, trade and money.
To what extent has the self -sufficiency strategy succeeded?
Despite the economic crises that Iran witnessed as a result of the sanctions, the government has followed policies aimed at enhancing local production and reducing dependence on imports in several sectors, and despite the great challenges faced by these policies, Iran has achieved some successes in this field.
1- The agricultural sector
The Iranian agricultural sector has grown significantly in recent years, within the framework of the self -sufficiency policies adopted by the government, and according to reports of “IRNA”, wheat production in Iran increased from about 12 million tons in 2017 to about 14 million tons in 2023, which reflects Iran’s attempts to achieve self -sufficiency in the field of food and reduce dependence on imports, which constituted about 70% of Iran’s food needs before Penalties.
2- The industrial sector
The Iranian government in the industrial sector focused on enhancing local productive capabilities, and according to the report of the “Online Trade” platform, Iran was able to increase its local production in many industries, including the auto and heavy equipment industry.
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In the automotive industry, for example, local production of about one million cars increased in 2017 to 1.2 million cars in 2023, and this indicates a clear improvement in the ability of the local industry to meet the needs of the Iranian market.
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3- Pharmaceutical industry
Among the most important sectors that have made remarkable progress in the field of self -sufficiency, the pharmaceutical sector, and according to the “Aquaria” website, Iran was able to achieve partial self -sufficiency in the production of medicines, as the percentage of domestic drugs produced increased to about 90% in 2023, compared to only 50% before the imposition of sanctions, which indicates a noticeable development in the health sector, despite the challenges of sanctions on imports.
4- Modern technology and industries
Iran has also witnessed progress in the areas of technological innovation and modern industries such as biotechnology and artificial intelligence; According to the reports of the newspaper “Dunaya Economy”, Iranian startups in these sectors have witnessed a growth of 20% annually since 2018, and this development reflects the efforts made to achieve self -sufficiency in technological industries and reduce dependence on imported technology.
What are the most prominent transformations that the Iranian economy has gone through and led to a decline in performance indicators?
In light of the accumulated economic challenges facing Iran, from international sanctions to the consequences of internal policies, questions about the future of economic growth in the country and the extent of the Iranian economy’s ability to withstand or recover.
In this context, economics professor Biman Mawlawi provides an analytical reading of the Iranian economy’s path during the past decades, highlighting the major transformations that this path witnessed and the causes of sharp decline in performance indicators.
Biman Mouloui explained to Al -Jazeera Net that the Iranian economy has gone through 3 main stages in terms of growth in recent decades:
- Between 1961 and 1976, that is, two years before the revolution, Iran witnessed economic growth with an average of 11%, a period that is one of the most successful stages of the Iranian economy.
- In the war phase, growth was negative, and in the post -war period, between 1989 and 2009, the average growth reached about 5%. “
- The third stage, which started with US nuclear sanctions in 2011 and was later followed by the imposition of sanctions from the United Nations, witnessed a sharp decline in growth, as its average decreased during the thirteen years – over the past year – to about 1.1%. He stressed that these sanctions “deeply affected the structure of the Iranian economy, and led to the paralysis of its movement.”
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“In 2011, Iran’s gross domestic product reached its peak at 645 billion dollars, but today it decreased to less than 300 billion dollars, i.e. declining in half. Likewise, the per capita income decreased to less than half, in light of the increasing population.”
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Mouloui warned of the continuation of this path, saying, “With the continuation of this approach, the local product and the per capita income in the coming years may decrease to less than 3 thousand dollars. While the economy has not completely prioritized, it is stopped, and lives at the minimum.”
He added, “Although the slogan of self -sufficiency prevented hunger, it led to the deterioration of economic and social standards, as Iran’s ranking in the economic freedom index declined from 100 to 158 out of 165, and the arrangement of foreign trade freedom has reached the last rank.”
How did the sanctions reveal structural imbalances in the Iranian economy?
Economy professor Mortada considers his horizon that the economic crisis in Iran dates back to before the sanctions, and says that “what the country suffers is not an emergency circumstance but rather as a result of accumulations three decades ago. The oil returns were obscuring the manifestations of the crisis, and with the tightening of the sanctions, the misfortunes of management emerged clearly.”
In his speech to Al -Jazeera Net, he adds that “the economic environment does not support production or self -sufficiency, due to the disturbing bureaucracy, ineffective management and the absence of administrative stability.”
He believes that slogans such as “resisting economy” were not translated into actual policies, considering that “an oil -based economy cannot be described as resistance. Investing in man is the key to building a strong economy, and not only relying on natural resources.”
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His horizon affirmed that the oil -based economy and ground resources are a fragile and shocking economy, and it cannot be described as resistance, and the slogans of the resisting economy have not been translated into concrete policies during the past decade.
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While the controversy continues at the Iranian interior over the priorities of the next stage, and whether it is possible to overcome the crisis by relying on self -capabilities, specialists such as his horizon sees that the future of the Iranian economy will remain subject to real structural reforms, and not by slogans or circumstantial measures, stressing that investing in man is alone to build a strong and sustainable economy.
Was the internal theses on converting sanctions into an investigation opportunity?
In the midst of the ongoing debate about the impact of Western sanctions on the Iranian economy, opinions differ between those who see sanctions an opportunity to strengthen the “resisting economy”, and who describes it as a severe blow to an already fragile economic structure.
In this context, economics professor Isaac Saidian provides his analytical reading of the Iranian economic reality in recent years, explaining that the deep effects of the sanctions exceeded slogans, and clearly reflected in the decline in economic performance indicators and the investment climate.
In his interview with Al -Jazeera Net, Izak Saidian said that although the nuclear agreement ostensibly reduced some of the restrictions imposed, the global dependence on the American economy made other countries avoid dealing with Iran, which actually imposed an undeclared economic blockade on the country.
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Saidian stressed that some of the internal theses that talked about converting sanctions into an opportunity to enhance local capabilities were not realistic, and said that “economic indicators do not support this optimism,” noting that the gross domestic product witnessed a sharp decline, and no concrete improvement in unemployment rates or the rest of the vital indicators appeared.
Saidian believes that the budget deficit was one of the most prominent implications of sanctions, as it increased year after year, without actual production capable of supporting the value of the national currency or compensating for the shortage of resources. He also said that “the economic structure remained fragile, and with the absence of growth, the crisis exacerbated.”
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Regarding the strategic sectors, Saidian explained that industries such as oil, gas and petrochemicals still depend on infrastructure dating back to decades, and the lack of foreign companies to participate in modernizing these sectors deprived the economy of major investment opportunities, so that the capital is directed instead towards the Gulf states.
He believed that one of the most dangerous results was an inflation exceeding 50%, which created an unstable economic environment that prompted the local investors themselves to gradually get their money out of the Iranian market, and said that “the decline in investment security was not limited to the outside, but also included the interior.”
Saidian concluded by emphasizing that talking about the ability of the Iranian economy to prosper despite the sanctions is not based on reality, and he explained that “if this hypothesis is correct, we would have witnessed a growth in the domestic product and an improvement in public indicators, but what happened was the exact opposite,” stressing the need to address the structural defect instead of relying on resilience alone.
The vision of Saidian is not satisfied with describing the crisis, but rather clearly indicates that its transcendence is only through radical economic reforms and the provision of a stable investment environment, away from relying on challenge and steadfastness as political slogans, as the experience – as it confirms – that the economy does not rise with slogans, but rather with institutions, competence and real policies.
