The Yemeni Armed Forces of the Houthi group in Yemen announced a new position in the series of measures it is taking to support the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip, with its intention to target and attack any ship heading towards Israeli ports, through the Gulf of Aden, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Red Sea, regardless of the country to which the ship belongs. This is the position that the group announced last Saturday, linking its decision to the siege imposed on the Gaza Strip by preventing the entry of food and medicine, stressing that all ships will be a legitimate target for the Yemeni armed forces.
This development in the position of the Houthis constituted a new complication in the scene of the repercussions of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip. This was preceded by the group’s announcement of targeting ships flying the Israeli flag, or affiliated with Israelis.
On November 19, it announced its control of the Israeli ship Galaxy Leader, and took it and its crew to the Yemeni coast. On the 25th of the same month, a Yemeni march attacked the Kalandar ship, owned by the Israeli company Zim. Last weekend, a Yemeni march bombed two Israeli ships in the Red Sea.
The group said, in a statement, “The Yemeni armed forces continue to prevent Israeli ships from navigating the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden until the Israeli aggression against our steadfast brothers in Gaza stops.” This forced Israeli ships to take more expensive shipping routes around Africa.
In reaction to the Houthi decisions in Yemen, the United States announced that it would form a military force with 38 countries to escort commercial ships and secure maritime navigation. For his part, Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi said on Saturday that “Israel is ready to act against the efforts of the Houthis in Yemen to disrupt navigation in the Red Sea if the international community fails to do so.”
He added to Israeli Channel 12 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with US President Joe Biden as well as European leaders about the Houthis targeting commercial ships with alleged Israeli ties. He added, “Israel is giving the world some time to organize in order to prevent this, but if there is no global arrangement, because it is a global issue, we will move to remove this naval blockade.”
Economic blockade
In recent years, Israel has sought to significantly enhance its trade with Asian countries, especially India, China, Japan and Singapore. The volume of Israeli trade with Asian countries is estimated at 40 billion dollars annually. The number of ships coming from Asia to Israeli ports via the Red Sea is estimated at 278 thousand ships.
After the Houthis’ announcements and targeting of Israeli ships in the Red Sea, it is expected that these ships will be forced to change their course via the Cape of Good Hope, which will raise shipping fees and commodity prices by a minimum of 9%, according to websites tracking the movement of commercial ships.
The latest Houthi decision represents an announcement of imposing a direct maritime trade blockade on Israel through the Red Sea, at a time when some ships heading towards Israel are taking a route through the Mediterranean Sea to avoid Houthi attacks.
This increases the difficulties facing the Israeli economy, which has been facing a major recession since October 7. This prompts the Central Bank of Israel to keep interest rates at high levels, and an increase in the government compensation bill pledged by the Israeli government to those affected, which will be reflected in the prices of goods for consumers, which will witness an increase between 30% and 40%, according to economists.
American options
US Department of Defense spokesman Patrick Ryder announced that the United States is holding discussions to establish an international “naval task force” against Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, indicating that the force will be an alliance that includes 38 countries willing to do so.
This option represents an American attempt to avoid bearing the burdens and consequences of this difficult mission. The Biden administration is currently focusing on not opening new fronts in the region and limiting the escalation to the Gaza Strip front, as officials in the Biden administration indicated that there is almost complete consensus within the administration that it does not make sense for the United States to respond directly to the Houthis in Yemen. According to the American news site Politico.
This applies to the position of the Biden administration, which opposes Israel dealing with the Houthi file directly to prevent escalation. The “Politico” website report stated that American officials currently estimate that an attack against the Houthis would be a wrong action, and poses a great risk of escalating the Israeli war on Gaza into a broader regional confrontation, and that the Biden administration is seeking to prevent such an escalation.
The report added that the Biden administration asked Israel not to attack the Houthis. A report published by the Wall Street Journal stated that the US administration asked Israel not to attack Yemen, for fear of expanding the war.
On the other hand, the Houthis’ position in escalating their actions in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait constitutes a direct threat to international trade. It also puts the United States at risk for its ability to secure merchant maritime routes.
Given the Houthi group’s close connection to Iran, and the prevailing belief among Western and Israeli officials that the group is coordinating its steps with Tehran, leaving this issue without a radical and rapid treatment may constitute a real pressure card in the hands of Tehran in any upcoming escalation or negotiation in the region.
Therefore, Israel is putting pressure on the Biden administration and Western allies with the need to take quick measures to prevent the situation from developing to isolate Israel from the southern maritime domain.
The head of the Israeli National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, condemned what he described as a “naval blockade” and warned, “If the world does not care about this matter, because it is an international problem, we will move to put an end to this naval blockade.”
He said during an interview with local media, “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Schulz that his government will move militarily against the Houthis if no one confronts them.”
In light of these facts, the American and European powers are maintaining a specific pace in confronting the Houthi attacks, limiting themselves to that in the current situation and not initiating proactive action within Yemeni territory.
Saudi Arabia supports them in this, as Reuters reported last week that Saudi Arabia clearly asked the United States not to attack in Yemen now. According to the agency, there is great fear in Saudi Arabia of escalation towards a wide regional war in the Middle East.
The confrontation with the Houthis
Aside from the current moment, the Houthis’ position represented a turning point in American, European and regional discussions about dealing with the group’s situation in Yemen. Multiple scenarios are presented.
In an analysis published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Michael Knights, a specialist in military and security affairs, pointed out that “this reality necessitates Washington to develop a practical policy to contain and ideally reduce the military and political power of the Houthis inside Yemen.” The report provides an integrated vision on containing the Houthis in Yemen by exerting military and political pressure on them, imposing broad sanctions, and supporting “non-Houthi Yemen,” according to the report’s description.
The proposed American and European options show that there is a deep awareness that the confrontation with the Houthis in Yemen faces challenges, given the complexity and sensitivity of the geographical location of Yemen, and the importance of the Ansar Allah group in relation to the Iranian axis.
Instead, this would represent a reversal in the United States’ Middle Eastern strategy of reducing escalation and not returning to direct involvement in the region’s conflicts. This may explain the Biden administration’s decision to choose the option of forming an international force. It takes time and effort to be effective. Which reinforces the conviction that the United States and its European allies do not have a clear deterrence policy to deal with the Houthis in Yemen.