Istanbul – Trade has always looked between Ankara and Tel Aviv as if it were the last remaining strands of a relationship that fluctuates between tension and normalization. On the occurrence of every political crisis, the trucks were continuing to cross, and the markets remain on the pulse of dealings as if the economy was immune to politics.
But the war on the Gaza Strip came to educate the equation and redraw the red lines again. Turkey, which has long chose diplomacy tools in managing its differences with Israel, this time sent its messages through ports and crossings, not only through data.
An unprecedented economic escalation, an accelerated narrowing of trade, and a political movement that seems to be feed from internal and regional pressure; All of this opens the door to questions about the motives of this Turkish transformation, so why did Ankara decide this time to enter the path of an open economic boycott against Tel Aviv?
Economy in isolation from politics
Despite the winding paths of political relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv since the official Turkish recognition of Israel in 1949, bilateral trade remained immune to these fluctuations, and even recorded steady growth with the signing of the free trade agreement between the two countries in December 1996, which entered into force in May 1997, to become one of the most important trade exchange engines in the Middle East region.
According to an academic study prepared by researchers, Ilhan Ghlou and Mirage Yazji from the University of Nevishhir, the data indicates that the volume of foreign trade between Turkey and Israel increased from only 44 million dollars in 1995 to about 5.83 billion dollars in 2015, an increase of 9.93 times.
While diplomatic relations witnessed major crises, most notably Türkiye’s withdrawal of its ambassador from Tel Aviv in the wake of the Israeli army’s attack on the “Marmara” ship in 2010, these crises did not reflect negatively on the volume of trade exchange.
Türkiye’s exports to Israel increased from $ 260 million in 1995 to $ 2.70 billion in 2015, while its imports rose from $ 180 million to $ 1.67 billion, achieving a trade surplus in favor of Ankara in most years.
According to the data of the Association of Turkish Exporters, Israel has in recent years an prominent position in the list of Türkiye’s commercial partners, as it ranked 16th among the largest importers of Turkish products in 2014, with exports of approximately $ 2.95 billion.
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The war on Gaza
After decades of neutralizing the economy from politics in managing the relationship with Tel Aviv, the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, which started on October 7, 2023, was an unprecedented turning point in Turkish economic policy towards Israel.
On the impact of the continuous massacres, Ankara chose to convert its economic tools into a direct pressure, which has gradually expanded to the announcement of the Turkish Ministry of Trade on May 4, 2024, the suspension of all commercial transactions with Israel, with an official confirmation that its appeal is subject to a sufficient and regular flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Besides, Türkiye has taken a set of other economic and administrative measures since the war began, including:
- Exclusive of energy cooperation plans with Israel on October 25, 2023, and the abolition of a visit to the Turkish Energy Minister.
- Excluding Israel from the list of targeted countries by export, according to Israeli economic newspapers in December 2023.
- Stopping Turkish Airlines flights to Israel until October 2024, before extending the decision until March 2025.
This escalation in commercial policies was rapidly reflected in the numbers. According to an official statement issued by the Turkish Ministry of Trade, the volume of trade between the two countries decreased by 32% during the period from October 7, 2023 to May 2, 2024, compared to the same period in the previous year. Turkish exports witnessed a 30%decrease, while imports from Israel fell 43.4%.
As for the monthly performance level, the data of the Turkish Exporters Association showed a decline in Turkey’s exports to Israel from $ 489 million in October 2022 to 348 million in the same month of 2023. In return, imports fell from $ 241 million to 99 million.
According to the latest data issued by the Turkish Statistics Authority, the suspension of trade exchange with Israel is still valid, without registration of any trade transactions between the two countries in official exports and import schedules.
Popular pressure and an escalating skepticism
On the escalation of the bombing on Gaza, the Turkish scene witnessed a wide wave of popular and political criticism directed at the government, calling for an immediate and comprehensive stop for all forms of trade exchange with Israel.
Although Ankara announced the official suspension of its commercial transactions, the protests continued in the Turkish street, and focused on its part on the local companies operating in the Israeli market, such as demonstrations in front of the headquarters of the “Zorlo Holding” company, which recently responded to pressure and announced the liquidation of its entire work in the Israeli market.
These steps did not end the controversy, as accusations were on the surface indicating that the government move was formal, not actual, and that the trade did not actually stop, but Ankara denied these allegations repeatedly, confirming its full commitment to the prohibition decisions.
In this context, the issue of continued arrival of Azerbaijani oil was raised to Israel via Turkey through the Baku-Blisi-Jehan line, which sparked a wave of popular anger. The Turkish Ministry of Energy responded with a definitive exile, confirming that the line is occupied according to an international agreement, and that the operating Turkish company does not interfere in selling oil or determining its destination, and no shipments for Israel have been recorded since the start of the ban.
The winners and losers
The Turkish economic boycott clearly affected both parties, although the damage varies. On the Israeli side, the boycott revealed the fragility of the economic situation based on the Turkish market, especially in the construction sector from which Israel imports about 70% of its iron needs and a third of cement, which led to high prices, broken projects and increased pressure on the real estate market. The auto sector was also damaged after the supply of famous models manufactured in Türkiye amid more expensive logistical difficulties, while attempts to circumvent the ban on intermediaries have proven expensive and useless.
In Turkey, export companies, especially small and medium, faced direct losses as a result of the export stopping to a market that represented a major outlet for their products, as some companies rely on the Israeli market by 80%. The President of the Turkish Exporters Association estimated the losses of 5 to 6 billion dollars annually.
For his part, economic analyst Mustafa Akoch believes that trade is no longer a “red line” in Turkish -Israeli relations, because the Turkish street imposed a new equation after the war on Gaza, and with the escalation of massacres and popular protests, it is no longer possible to separate the economy from the political position.
He adds, in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, that the results of the recent local elections revealed widely popular dissatisfaction with the government’s position, which prompted it to adopt the boycott as a political necessity and a real pressure tool, not just a symbolic position. And he confirms that Ankara is aware that linking trade with politics enhances its position, especially as it has alternatives to the Israeli market.
According to Akoch, the Turkish government was the greatest political winner of this step, as it regained part of its symbolism in supporting Palestine internally and externally, in a moment when it was in need to enhance its popular and regional presence.
