Texas sets tone for midterm elections

(Houston and Washington) Texas opened the primaries on Tuesday in the United States with closely watched votes for both Republicans and Democrats, a few months before mid-term elections that are crucial for the continuation of Donald Trump’s presidency.

In this conservative southern state, Democrats hope to win a senatorial seat in November for the first time in more than 30 years, while Republicans intend to preserve their majority in the Senate in Washington.

In the Republican primary, no candidate exceeded the 50% mark of the vote according to the projections of several American media, so a second round will be necessary at the end of May between the outgoing senator John Cornyn, and the radical Trumpist candidate Ken Paxton.

On the Democratic side, a winner had not yet managed to emerge in the evening, even if the young elected James Talarico had a certain lead over his rival, the deputy Jasmine Crockett, after the first counts.

A few months before the midterm elections, which are crucial for the continuation of the second Trump presidency, these primaries should provide the first trends on the messages that resonate with voters, against a backdrop of persistent discontent over the economy and questions about the outbreak of war against Iran.

Trumpists

On the right, outgoing senator John Cornyn, 74, a conservative figure, will again be confronted during the second round at the end of May with the current Attorney General of Texas, Ken Paxton, 63, elected very Trumpist and with radical positions – notably against the right to abortion.

Both pride themselves on being loyal to the Republican president, who has refused to support any specific candidate – for the moment.

According to polls, Ken Paxton is the favorite in the upcoming second round against John Cornyn, due in particular to his strong popularity within Donald Trump’s “MAGA” base.

But some are alarmed by the history of this ultraconservative elected official who survived an impeachment procedure in 2023, before an adultery scandal last year leading to a resounding divorce.

“Many Republican officials are concerned that if Senator Cornyn loses the primary, a Democrat could be elected to the Senate for the first time since 1988,” Peter Loge, professor of political communication at George Washington University, told AFP before the vote.

In November, during elections where Donald Trump will not appear on the ballot, it could however be difficult to succeed in mobilizing certain voters who are more Trumpist than Republican.

Bible

Hence the party’s dilemma, which must find the best way to win more than a year after the billionaire’s return to the White House, by bringing the “MAGA” base to the polls, while not frightening the more moderate Republicans.

On the left, two strategic visions were opposed for two progressive candidates.

On the one hand, James Talarico, elected to the Texas Parliament, managed to reduce his delay in the polls over the weeks.

This 36-year-old white pastor has made himself known in recent years thanks to notable interviews on conservative grounds, also claiming not to want to leave the exclusivity of the Bible’s message to the right.

On the other hand, Jasmine Crockett, a 44-year-old African-American MP known for her outspokenness, says a fighting personality like hers is necessary to oppose Donald Trump.

Whoever it is, the person who wins on the Democratic side will have a hard time dethroning the Republicans in November, in a state of Texas that remains largely conservative.