Technology not growing fast enough to decarbonize steel and cement industries by 2050, study finds

Steel and cement are two materials that no society can do without. Their production, however, is accompanied by a significant carbon footprint. To achieve zero emissions targets under the Paris Agreement, countries, cities and industries depend on new large-scale CO infrastructure.₂ transport and storage, renewable electricity and green hydrogen.

A new study by researchers at the National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan and the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom shows that the current pace of deployment of this infrastructure is insufficient. The study argues that changes in the way steel and cement-based materials are used or consumed must also be considered if the Paris targets are to be achieved.

The study, led by Dr Takuma Watari, reveals a significant gap between planned and actual infrastructure deployment. For example, scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2010 estimated that nearly 200 million tonnes of CO₂ from the steel and cement industries would be captured and stored by 2021.

However, Watari and his colleagues found that this figure was woefully wrong; in reality, this amount was only 1 million tonnes, which calls into question the 2 billion tonnes expected by the IEA which should be captured and stored by 2050. The study is published in the journal Natural communications.

“We are not saying that existing scenarios are physically or economically unrealistic. But simply waiting for new infrastructure to emerge and solve all our problems is a very risky way to solve the problem, given the scale of the challenges and the limited timetable “, he added. ” Watari said.

Assuming infrastructure deployment based on historical trends and current construction plans, the study then shows that the supply of steel and cement in line with carbon budgets based on the Paris Agreement will not meet the request.

“We need to be well prepared for a future gap between achievable supply and expected demand,” Watari noted. “The construction and manufacturing industries will need to provide the same level of services with fewer materials by changing the way products are designed, used and disposed of.”

To quantify the scale of the action required, the study provides a benchmark in line with the estimated achievable offer: according to budgets in line with Paris, the same level of services with 60% less materials in construction and 40 % less in the industry is needed.

On a positive note, the study found that the current limited and feasible supply is capable of meeting the basic needs of a growing global population. Indeed, global material demand to meet basic needs such as electricity, water, sanitation, housing and mobility is far below the estimated feasible supply.

“The challenge is more in equitable distribution than in total quantity,” Watari said. “We recommend that greater responsibility be placed on high-income countries, which have much larger stocks of materials in use than low-income countries.”

Provided by the National Institute for Environmental Studies