The political crisis and its economic repercussions between Khartoum and Nairobi are still leading the scene in light of the ongoing war in Sudan. After a month after the Sudanese government’s decision to ban imports from Kenya against the background of its hosting a conference for the Rapid Support Forces, Kenyan President William Roto said that Sudan still buys tea from his country, which was denied by the Sudanese embassy in Nairobi, confirming that the decision to stop importing Kenyan products is still Sea.
Mutual statements
In a television interview, which was transferred through Kenyan media, President William Roto stated: “We are still selling tea to Sudan, even after they said, they will not buy it, the market forced them to do so.”
On the other hand, the Sudanese embassy in Nairobi issued a statement confirming the implementation of the full decision, noting that no Kenyan products have been imported to Sudan, including tea, since the decision was issued, and that any allegations of continued supply are unfounded.
Bridge
Despite the Kenyan President’s talk about the continued export, Zimbabwe’s ambassador to Sudan, Emmanuel Gombo, announced during his meeting with the Secretary of State, Trade and Supply, his country’s readiness to meet Sudan’s need for the tea commodity.
In this context, the journalist and economic expert Mu’tasim Al -Aqra, in his talk to Al -Jazeera Net, believes that the economic effects on Sudan are limited, pointing to the possibility of importing tea from other countries in Africa or Asia.
For his part, the economist, Abdel -Azim Al -Muhalla, pointed out that the trade balance between Sudan and Kenya tends to the latter’s favor, as Sudan imports more from Kenya than it is issued, and added: “Sudan can find alternatives in African markets such as Zimbabwe or Asian countries producing tea.”
He believes that the boycott will cost Kenya a lot, as Sudan was a gateway to enter its products into Arab countries.
Internal losses
On the other hand, the journalist specialized in economic affairs, Nazik Shammam, warned of the repercussions of the decision on the Sudanese merchants, saying: Tea traders will be exposed to great losses due to the cessation of the import of Kenyan products for political reasons.
She added: “The owners of tea factories who were dependent on Nairobi will not find immediate alternatives, and they will have to go to countries, such as India and Pakistan, which means bearing a higher cost, especially since tea is a basic commodity in the Sudanese food culture.”
Shammam pointed out that the tea trade in Sudan will face obstacles that are difficult to overcome, in light of many manufacturers possessing farms on Kenyan lands to support their industrial operations in Khartoum, which makes them difficult to import in the future.
Supply and adaptation chains
Shammam believes that the unstable security conditions complicate any attempt to transfer tea farms to Sudan or other countries, which makes the only immediate solution, the import at a high cost of distant markets, with the accompanying direct impact on the prices of the product locally.
In turn, economic researcher Al -Tayyib Abdel Salam believes that the prohibition decision will lead to a temporary disturbance in supply chains, but it is expected that the market will adapt within a year, with the appearance of alternative suppliers or resorting to informal channels to provide tea.
On the other hand, the economic journalist, Rehab Fernen, reduced the importance of the decision, noting that there are countries like Zimbabwe that can easily bridge the gap, in addition to Asian countries capable of providing the Sudanese market in large quantities at a reasonable cost.
It also ruled out the possibility of localizing tea cultivation in Sudan, because the climate is inappropriate.
Settlement of tea cultivation … different opinions
Nevertheless, the economist, Haitham Fathi, believes that the decision -as a surprise -may open the door for attempts to settle tea cultivation, based on the diversity of climate in Sudan.
He told Al -Jazeera Net: “There will be a rise in tea prices for the near term, but Sudan has reliable African alternatives,” he told Al -Jazeera Net.
While some see that tea cultivation is locally possible, excluded by others due to climate and cost factors, which reflects a clear variation in opinions on the feasibility of this idea.
In this context, the engineer at the Ministry of Agriculture, Ammar Hassan, described the ban on an economic pressure paper on Kenya, calling on the Sudanese government to expedite the provision of effective alternatives to cover the gap.
He also excluded high prices even in the long run, noting that the government is working to import tea from other markets, while highlighting some visions that call for the development of alternative local production.
After
In another dimension, the researcher and the political writer, Hassan Al -Nasser, believes that Kenya will not retract its position in support of the Rapid Support Forces, due to the “political and military guarantees” stronger than commercial interests with Sudan.
He added: “The real bet is to what extent can the internal conditions in Kenya contribute to the formation of a pressure front on President William Roto.”
Sudan’s move also described that it is relatively late, considering that its diplomatic position towards the countries supporting rapid support is still fragile, which may push Kenya to continue in its positions.
