As the Sudanese war lasted, its external and internal repercussions increased, casting a shadow on the agricultural sector, which constitutes a major source of production in the country. During the period in which the fighting spread to the most productive states such as Al-Jazira, Kordofan, and Darfur, the Sudanese entered into a predicament and a food crisis that was classified as the worst.
Within one year of the war, Sudan lost 25% of its GDP, causing severe food insecurity for 25.6 million Sudanese. This means a sharp decline in the food agriculture sector, which constitutes more than 34% of the GDP according to 2019 estimates. .
The rapid deterioration in food security in Sudan resulted in 755,000 people reaching catastrophic conditions, and the risk of famine included 14 regions, with approximately 25.6 million people suffering from high levels of acute hunger, according to figures from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Agriculture is the lung of the Sudanese economy
In conjunction with the warnings of international organizations of the increasing risks due to the acute hunger that afflicted the Sudanese, the suffering worsened during the period during which the Rapid Support Forces took control of states considered important agricultural projects, such as Al-Jazeera, which is the largest single-administration irrigated project in the world.
The Al Jazeera project is located in central Sudan, between the Blue and White Nile in the Sennar region, which is located south of the capital, Khartoum. It constitutes a basic pillar of the economy and food security, as experts confirmed to Al Jazeera Net that the food crisis is linked to the decline in agricultural areas in the project.
In addition, Sennar and Blue Nile are among the states most affected by the war taking place in Sudan since mid-April 2023, as they witnessed a noticeable decrease in cultivated areas, while the states of North Kordofan and West Kordofan did not record any agricultural production during the summer crop season of 2023.
Professor of Economic Geography at the Sudanese University of Kassala, Omar Ahmed Abdel-Jalil, says that there are states that were important and essential in the production of corn in eastern Sudan and in Kordofan, and there are states that were specialized in millet production, such as Gedaref, Blue Nile, Kordofan, Darfur, and Al-Jazira.
Abdul Jalil estimates – in statements to Al Jazeera Net – the total consumption of grains in Sudan at about 7.5 million tons per year, distributed between 6.6 million tons for human consumption, 244 thousand acres for animal consumption, 427 thousand losses, and 128 thousand seeds.
A sharp decline in agricultural areas
Abdul Jalil says that these areas, due to the war, witnessed a sharp decline in production compared to the level of consumption, which had a negative impact on the level of self-sufficiency, as the areas decreased from 70 million acres to 36 million in Sudan.
He points out that this decline occurred after many irrigated, rain-fed and flood productive sectors left the agricultural production cycle due to the war, especially the Al-Jazeera project. Irrigation canals in most irrigated projects in areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces were damaged, and irrigation engineers withdrew from the tanks that provide irrigation water for those agricultural projects.
Studying the impact of war on agricultural areas in areas such as Sudan is difficult or impossible, given that field presence is not possible, except for satellite images that provide practical and effective solutions, especially since the vegetation index is widely used in remote sensing to analyze density. The vitality of plants in a specific area. This indicator provides vital information about changes in plant health over time, and is also used to monitor drought and evaluate the growth of agricultural crops.
A careful analysis of satellite images conducted by the “Sanad News Agency” for monitoring and verification of the Al Jazeera Network showed a catastrophic deterioration of vegetation cover in 6 of the largest farms in the capital, Khartoum, during the past four years, from 2020 to 2024.
The results of analysis of Sentinel 2 satellite images revealed a noticeable decrease in the vegetation index on these farms, which indicates a serious decline in the health and density of green spaces.
This alarming deterioration is due to the ongoing armed conflict in Sudan, which has led to a significant decline in agricultural production and a severe shortage of natural resources.
Agriculture is the source of livelihood for Sudanese
The FAO estimates that more than 1.8 million Sudanese families work in agriculture and pastoralism, or about 9 million people. This means that agriculture is a source of income for these families. However, the Sudanese are able to produce food even in conditions of war, but the problem lies in the difficulty of accessing and obtaining land. On raw materials.
Added to these challenges – according to Abdel Jalil – is the high labor costs, especially in Gedaref, the state that is relied upon to fill the shortfall in some food security requirements in Sudan.
The war caused the closure of the border with Ethiopia at the Qalabat border crossing in the movement of Ethiopian agricultural labor, which is mainly relied upon in agricultural operations in Gedaref, in addition to the fragility of security, farmers’ concerns about the plundering of agricultural machinery and agricultural production inputs, and the reluctance of banks to provide agricultural financing, which prevented the cultivation of many crops. Large agricultural projects in safe states, according to Abdul Jalil’s speech.
What exacerbated this – according to his point of view – was that the central government and the governments of the safe states were not prepared to take advantage of the great opportunities available, especially since the indicators were showing that rainfall rates would be above average, as well as irrigated agricultural projects, which, if improved, would establish agricultural crops in them efficiently and effectively and with distinct agricultural inputs. High productivity would have been achieved, which may have contributed to reducing the food gap in Sudan.
Abdel-Jalil points out what he called “the systematic destruction by the Rapid Support Forces of all agricultural research centers in Sudan (Shambat Research Center, Al-Jazeera Research Center), in addition to the destruction of germplasm repositories of many pure Sudanese varieties, especially food grains.”
The war is tightening
The challenges left by the Sudanese war are not limited to manpower and the decline in agricultural areas, as experts unanimously agreed that the challenges are much greater than that, and that the war caused the destruction of irrigation systems, canals, and grain stores, which negatively affected the agricultural, harvesting, and storage operations.
They believe that the war caused a shortage of agricultural inputs due to the difficulty of obtaining seeds, fertilizers and pesticides due to the interruption of supply chains and their high prices.
While Abdul Jalil says that the challenges included production inputs, such as the significant increase in fuel prices over last year, an increase of up to 500%, which affects the rise in production costs, and may affect weak economic returns when selling the crop, or perhaps the loss of farms.
Noting the weak establishment of agricultural crops in an ideal manner due to production inputs and the absence of government agricultural financing, all of which will negatively affect agricultural productivity, according to his statement.
He also says that private companies – which work in the fields of fertilisers, seeds, pesticides and weed control – were affected by the war after their warehouses and offices in Khartoum and Gezira states were looted, and that most of their departments and workers are outside Sudan, and the fragile security situation has prevented the continuity of providing their services.
He added that there are great difficulties facing the delivery of agricultural production inputs to safe areas due to security complications, transportation complications, and the absence of government funding this season after most of the banks’ financial resources were looted.
Also, the decisions issued regarding mortgages and mobile assets prevented the provision of guarantees for agricultural financing to owners of large holdings exceeding a thousand acres – as Abdel Jalil says – and he adds to these challenges:
1- The animal sector, especially poultry production, was greatly affected after the Rapid Support Forces took control of parts of Khartoum State, as poultry production companies are concentrated in Khartoum State.
2- Most of the food factories in Sudan were destroyed, as the 3 most important states in Sudan constitute 50% of the total industries in the country under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (Khartoum, Al-Jazira, and South Darfur).
3- Destruction of agricultural infrastructure: Irrigation systems, canals, and grain stores were destroyed, which negatively affected agricultural, harvesting, and storage operations.
4- Lack of agricultural inputs: due to the difficulty of obtaining seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides due to the interruption of supply chains and their high prices.
5- High food prices and a threat to the food security of Sudan in all its states, which led to malnutrition, especially among children and pregnant women, as a result of a lack of balanced nutrition.
6- Shortage of supply: The decrease in agricultural production has led to a short supply of agricultural products in the markets, causing food prices to rise significantly.
7- High production costs: due to high fuel and fertilizer prices, which contributed to increasing the prices of agricultural products.
8- Difficulty in exporting: Trade movement was disrupted and transportation infrastructure was destroyed, which negatively affected Sudan’s ability to export its agricultural products.
This confirms that the Sudanese war not only caused a decline in agricultural areas, but it also affected and restricted all production activities, and disrupted the facilities of life in a country that was suffering from inflation, a severe shortage of foreign exchange reserves, and high debts and inability to repay them.
Today, after more than a year of war, we can say that the Sudan conflict came at a time when the world is exposed to major shocks in food security, after global food chains were affected by the events in Ukraine and Russia, and with Sudan’s absence from the global production arena, there are negative repercussions on the region. In its entirety.
