Study suggests major increase in carbon capture and storage is essential to meet 2°C climate target

A massive expansion of carbon capture and storage technologies is needed to meet the Paris Climate Agreement. Yet a new study from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and the University of Bergen in Norway shows that without major efforts, the technology will not develop fast enough to meet the 2°C target, and that even with major efforts, it is unlikely to develop fast enough to meet the 1.5°C target.

The idea behind carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is to capture carbon dioxide and then store it deep underground. Some CCS applications, such as bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACCS), actually lead to negative emissions, essentially “reversing” emissions from fossil fuel combustion. CCS technologies play an important role in many climate change mitigation strategies, including net-zero emissions targets. However, their current use is negligible.

“CCS is an important technology for achieving negative emissions and also essential for reducing carbon emissions from some of the most carbon-intensive industries. Yet our results show that major efforts are needed to close the gap between the demonstration projects in place today and the massive deployment we need to mitigate climate change,” says Jessica Jewell, associate professor at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden.

A study titled “Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets” conducted an in-depth analysis of past and future growth of CCS to predict whether it can scale up quickly enough for the Paris Climate Agreement. The study, published in Nature Climate change, found that over the 21st century, no more than 600 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide can be sequestered using CCS.

“Our analysis shows that we are unlikely to capture and store more than 600 Gt of CO during the 21st century. This contrasts with many climate change mitigation strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which in some cases require more than 1,000 Gt of CO₂ “The data collected will be captured and stored by the end of the century,” says Tsimafei Kazlou, a doctoral student at the University of Bergen in Norway and first author of the study.

“While this study is comprehensive, it is also important to understand when the technology can start to work at scale, because the later we start using CCS, the less likely we are to keep the temperature increase to 1.5°C or 2°C. That is why most of our research has focused on how quickly CCS can scale up.”

A reduction in the CCS failure rate is necessary

The study highlights the need to increase the number of CCS projects implementing the technology and reduce failure rates to ensure that the technology “takes off” this decade. Today, CCS development is being driven by policies such as the European Net Zero Emissions Industry Act and the US Inflation Reduction Act. In fact, if all current plans come to fruition, by 2030, CCS capacity will be eight times greater than it is today.

“Although there are ambitious plans for CCS, there are serious doubts about their feasibility. About 15 years ago, during another wave of interest in CCS, planned projects failed at a rate of nearly 90%. If historical failure rates continue, capacity in 2030 will be at most twice what it is today, which would be insufficient to meet climate goals,” says Tsimafei Kazlou.

A promising technology with obstacles to overcome

Like most technologies, CCS evolves in a non-linear way and there are other examples of technologies to learn from. Even if CCS “takes off” by 2030, the challenges will not stop.

Over the next decade, it will need to grow as fast as wind power did in the early 2000s to keep pace with the carbon dioxide reductions needed to limit global temperature rise to 2°C by 2100. Then, starting in the 2040s, CCS will need to match the peak growth that nuclear power experienced in the 1970s and 1980s.

“The good news is that if CCS can scale up as fast as other low-carbon technologies, the 2°C target would be within reach (tiptoeing). The bad news is that the 1.5°C target would likely still be out of reach,” Jewell says.

The authors say their analysis highlights the need for strong political support for CCS combined with rapid expansion of other decarbonization technologies to meet climate goals.

“Rapid deployment of CCS requires strong support programs to make CCS projects financially viable. At the same time, our results show that since we can only rely on CCS to provide 600 Gt of CO₂ “If we want to capture and store energy in the 21st century, other low-carbon technologies, such as solar and wind, must develop even faster,” says Aleh Cherp, a professor at Central European University in Austria.