Study suggests gun-free zones don’t attract mass shootings

Gun-free zones have often been accused of making schools, malls and other public places more attractive to shooters. However, no quantitative studies have examined these claims. Now, in a first-of-its-kind study published in The Lancet Regional Health – AmericasResearchers at UC Davis Health and other institutions have shown that gun-free zones can actually reduce the risk of mass shootings.

“Our most significant finding is that gun-free zones do not attract active shooters,” said the study’s first author, Paul Reeping, an injury epidemiologist and postdoctoral fellow in the Violence Prevention Research Program at the University of California, Davis. “The study actually shows that gun-free zones have a preventative effect. The main takeaway is that the claim that gun-free zones are more dangerous is simply false.”

Gun-free zones vary by federal, state, and local laws. In Texas, for example, if more than 50% of a bar’s revenue comes from alcohol, that establishment is considered gun-free. While most people think of this designation primarily as schools, theaters, gyms, and other public places, private businesses can also implement them at their own discretion.

A unique study design to match at-risk locations

The study was conducted by researchers from Columbia University and the University of Michigan. The team looked at 150 locations in the United States that experienced shootings between 2014 and 2020. The researchers also identified 150 locations that could have experienced a shooting but did not, and designated them as controls. These control locations were matched to the shooting group by county, year, and type of facility.

“For a long time, people thought this work was not feasible,” Reeping said. “We used a unique design that paired locations based on similar criteria but with very different outcomes — in this case, shootings.”

The team found that 72 (48%) of the shootings occurred in gun-free zones. Of the 150 witnesses who did not experience a shooting, 92 (61.3%) were unarmed. Their study suggests that gun-free zones may have reduced the risk of mass shootings.

“After accounting for matching pairs, our analyses showed that active shootings were 62.5 percent less likely to occur in gun-free establishments than in places where guns are allowed,” Reeping said. “Therefore, active shooters are very unlikely to target gun-free zones; conversely, gun-free zones may have a protective effect.”

This work could have important policy implications. The Supreme Court’s 2022 Bruen decision gave Americans the right to carry loaded firearms in public. However, gun-free zones are a constitutional exception that some governments have adopted, though those exceptions are still being challenged in court.

Much more work needs to be done to confirm these findings. “This is the first time this type of study has been done, and we hope more will follow,” Reeping said. “Most people think that gun-free zones are actually more dangerous, and the evidence from our study doesn’t support that.”

The study’s co-authors were Christopher N. Morrison, Charles C. Branas, Ariana N. Gobaud and Sonali Rajan of Columbia University, and Douglas J. Wiebe of the University of Michigan.