Research from Imperial College London has revealed the limits of how quickly we can develop the technology to store gigatonnes of carbon dioxide beneath the Earth’s surface.
Current international scenarios aimed at limiting global warming to less than 1.5 degrees by the end of the century rely on technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the Earth’s atmosphere faster than humans are releasing it. This means that CO2 at a rate of 1 to 30 gigatons per year by 2050.
However, estimates of how quickly these technologies can be deployed are highly speculative. But the results of a new study by researchers at Imperial College London show that existing projections are unlikely to be achievable at current rates of growth.
The study found that it could be possible to store up to 16 gigatonnes of CO by 2050.2 Every year, 100,000 tonnes of underground natural gas are produced. However, achieving this target would require significant expansion and scaling of storage capacity over the coming decades, which is not foreseen given the current pace of investment, development and deployment.
As the UK government seeks to position Britain as a clean energy superpower and invest more in carbon capture and storage, the study highlights the importance of aligning ambitious initiatives with realistic targets for how quickly CO2 can be safely stored underground.
The results are published in Nature Communications.
Realistic goals
The team from Imperial’s Department of Earth Sciences and Engineering have created models showing how quickly carbon storage systems can be developed and deployed, taking into account the availability of suitable geology and technical and economic limitations to growth.
Although the results suggest that it is possible to reduce CO emissions2 If the emissions are large-scale, they also suggest that the path to get there and the contribution of key regions could differ from what current models project, including those in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“Many factors come into play in these projections, including how quickly reservoirs can be filled, as well as other geological, geographical, economic, technological and political factors,” said lead author Yuting Zhang from Imperial’s Department of Earth Sciences and Engineering. “However, more accurate models like the ones we developed will help us understand how uncertainty in storage capacity, regional variations in institutional capacity and limits to development could affect the climate plans and targets set by policymakers.”
Co-author Dr Samuel Krevor, also from Imperial’s Department of Earth Sciences and Engineering, said: “Although storing between 6 and 16 gigatonnes of CO2 Even if annual efforts of such magnitude are technically possible, these high projections are much more uncertain than the low projections. Indeed, there are no government plans or international agreements to support an effort of such magnitude.
“It is important to remember, however, that 5 gigatonnes of carbon buried in the ground is still a major contribution to climate change mitigation. Our models provide the tools needed to update current projections with realistic targets for how and where carbon storage should be developed over the coming decades.”
Existing projections are probably not feasible
In their analysis, the researchers found that the IPCC included results from integrated assessment models (IAMs) – tools that combine different sources of information to predict how carbon storage methods may impact our climate and economy – that often overestimate the amount of CO2 can be stored underground.
In particular, the analysis suggests that projections in IPCC reports for Asian countries, including China, Indonesia and South Korea, where current development is low, assume unrealistic deployment rates, meaning that existing projections are unlikely and unreliable.
Professor Christopher Jackson, co-author and also a member of Imperial’s Department of Earth Sciences and Engineering, said: “While integrated assessment models play an important role in helping climate policy makers make decisions, some of the assumptions they make when it comes to storing large amounts of carbon underground appear unrealistic.”
World reference
The team’s calculations suggest that a more realistic global benchmark would be in the range of 5 to 6 gigatons of storage per year by 2050. This estimate is consistent with how existing similar technologies have been developed over time.
Their modeling approach uses growth patterns observed in real-world data from different sectors, including mining and renewable energy. By looking at past growth in these sectors and combining existing amounts of stored CO2, the researchers were able to determine how these sectors grew.2 With a flexible framework to explore different scenarios, the new approach offers a reliable way to make feasible long-term projections for underground CO2 storage and could be a valuable tool for policy makers.
Dr Krevor said: “Our study is the first to apply growth models of established industries to CO2 “Current forecasts are based on speculative assumptions, but by using historical data and trends from other industry sectors, our new model offers a more realistic and practical approach to predicting how quickly carbon storage can be increased, helping us set more achievable targets.”
More information:
The feasibility of gigaton-scale CO2 storage by mid-century, Nature Communications (2024). Preprint: www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-4011559/v1
Provided by Imperial College London
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