(New York) A Supreme Court decision that displeases the president. A president who is preparing for war in the Middle East. A people unhappy with the economy. On Tuesday evening, these ingredients will all come together when Donald Trump delivers the first State of the Union address of his second term. Some viewers will have a feeling of déjà vu.
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On January 27, 2010, Barack Obama took advantage of his first State of the Union speech to castigate the Supreme Court, six of whose nine judges were present in the chamber of the House of Representatives. The highest court had just rendered, by a narrow majority, the judgment Citizens United v. Federal Election Commissionlifting the lock on electoral expenses in the name of freedom of expression.
“With all due respect to the principle of the separation of powers, the Supreme Court last week overturned a century of jurisprudence,” declared the 44e president, denouncing a decision that he said would open “the floodgates to special interest groups, including foreign companies, allowing them to spend without limits in our elections.”
Seated in the front row, conservative Justice Samuel Alito nodded in disapproval. “Not true!” “, he said, according to people who can read lips.
Donald Trump should not fail to continue his criticism of the Supreme Court on Tuesday evening.
Last Friday, he already questioned the courage and patriotism of the judges who invalidated most of his customs duties, the cornerstone of his economic policy.
It remains to be seen who among the Supreme Court justices will be present.
From Iraq to Iran
On January 28, 2003, George W. Bush used his second State of the Union address to justify the war in Iraq. He then uttered 16 famous words that would lead his country on the path to a historic strategic error. In French: “The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein had recently sought to obtain significant quantities of uranium from Africa. »
Eight days later, Secretary of State Colin Powell presented his “evidence” on Iraq’s alleged arsenal of weapons of mass destruction to the UN.
The American dossier was obviously based on unfounded or misleading information. But it is not superfluous to recall that the 43e President had sought approval from the US Congress and the UN Security Council before attacking Iraq. He had received the green light from Congress, but not from the UN.
PHOTO RAMZI HAIDAR, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE ARCHIVES
A U.S.-led coalition air raid hit Saddam Hussein’s guest palace during bombing raids on Baghdad, Iraq, in March 2003.
Twenty-three years later, the United States has established the largest naval and air strike force in the Middle East since the Iraq War. Last Thursday, Donald Trump gave himself ten days to decide whether an agreement with Iran was possible.
But the president has yet to coherently explain to Americans why an attack on Iran would be necessary.
Nor did he consult Congress, which has the exclusive power to declare war, according to the American Constitution.
Donald Trump could therefore in turn use the traditional State of the Union speech to justify a war in the Middle East. Will he avoid unsubstantiated information or lies? The question remains open. In the meantime, a reminder: last June, the president affirmed that American forces had “wiped out Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity, rendering it incapable of possessing a nuclear weapon”.
These days he threatens to attack Iran to prevent it from possessing a nuclear weapon.
Ford’s candor
On January 15, 1975, Gerald Ford uttered words never before heard in a State of the Union address, before or after his presidency. “I have to tell you that the state of the Union is not good,” declared the man who succeeded Richard Nixon after his resignation in the wake of the Watergate scandal.
PHOTO ARCHIVES AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
The 38e U.S. President Gerald Ford (second from left) speaks with leaders of Britain, France and Germany at a summit in Helsinki, Finland, July 1975.
President Ford was referring to the economic crisis affecting the United States, characterized by unemployment and inflation, among other things.
No one expects Donald Trump to demonstrate the candor of Gerald Ford and acknowledge Americans’ dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy.
According to polls, Americans blame him in particular for his inability to fulfill his promise to reduce prices. Incapacity that several of them attribute to its customs duties.
In fact, if his past statements are anything to go by, Donald Trump will serve Americans the opposite of candor when he addresses the issue of customs duties on Tuesday evening.
Last March, the president predicted that his tariffs would revive American manufacturing. In 2025, this sector will lose around 108,000 jobs.
Last Wednesday, he also claimed on Truth Social that the United States’ trade deficit had been “reduced by 78% thanks to customs duties.” The next day, official data showed that the trade deficit had fallen by only 0.2% in 2025.
So all the ingredients are in place for what could resemble a state of disunity speech.
