Tuesday’s election suggests that Donald Trump should win the Republican nomination, but it also exposes his weaknesses heading into the general election.
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If you like the suspense of election races, I may spoil your fun a little by revealing this: the race for the Republican nomination is essentially over.
On the other hand, the general election is well and truly underway and what we saw in Iowa and New Hampshire is far from demonstrating that a Trump victory in November is assured.
Crushing victory?
Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, where a good portion of those who voted for his opponent were not Republicans, confirms what we already knew: as only Republicans will have the right to vote in most other primaries States, Nikki Haley’s chances of winning will be almost zero.
On the other hand, Trump’s victories were not triumphant. The votes for the other candidates – almost half of the total – were initially votes against him. He does not control the entire Republican electorate.
According to polls, those who support Trump are primarily those who believe his “Big Lie” about the 2020 election and who identify with the MAGA movement more than with the traditional Republican Party. To win in November, Trump will need to mobilize voters well beyond these foregone groups.
What will Nikki Haley do?
The impact of the primaries on the general election will depend in part on what the former governor of South Carolina does in the coming weeks.
If she continues to attack Trump, which she has hesitated to do for months, it will not be enough to turn the tide, but it could convince some Republicans that it is possible to oppose Trump without oppose party principles.
Clearly, Haley’s persistence and ability to mobilize opposition against him brings out the worst traits in Trump’s temperament, perhaps because she is a visible minority woman.
Some lessons
It was enough to see Trump’s pitiful victory speech in New Hampshire to understand that with each additional day that Haley remains in the race, Trump will risk losing control and alienating a part of the electorate he will need in November.
Trump’s inability to resort to anything other than lies and threats against his opponent may pass for strength in the eyes of his die-hard supporters, but they are signs of weakness that Democrats will not miss. ‘exploit.
Also, polls in New Hampshire show that support for Nikki Haley comes less from the appeal of the candidate than from the rejection of Trump.
Part of the recent support for Trump is because many voters have a nostalgic view of the best aspects of his tenure. When, as New Hampshire voters have just done, they take stock of what Trump has increasingly become since his exile at Mar-A-Lago – a temperamental autocrat motivated by a sense of revenge against his detractors – things could change.
