During the past months, the global cocoa markets have witnessed severe disturbances that raised their prices to unprecedented levels, and have caused widespread concern among chocolate and consumers around the world.
However, encouraging indicators began to appear from the heart of the main production areas in West Africa, which resulted in hope that a possible breakthrough occurred in 2025.
According to a report published by the “Trending Vio” website, the new harvest season in countries such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana – who together represents more than half of the global cocoa production – shows a relatively improvement compared to the last season, which witnessed a sharp decline as a result of harsh climatic conditions and the spread of plant diseases such as “swollen buds virus”, which caused severe damage to crops.
The expectations of the International Cocoa Organization indicate the possibility of a surplus of production during the 2025/2024 season, which may contribute to alleviating the intensity of the crisis that has been going on for more than two years.
West Africa: the global market pillar
West African countries, led by Cote d’Ivoire (38% of global production) and Ghana (12%), are the cornerstone of the global cocoa market.
Nigeria and Cameroon also contribute a noticeable share, making the region responsible for about 65% of the global production of this vital crop.
But this great dependence on one region makes the market very sensitive to any climate, health or logistical shocks, which was confirmed by the statements of the “Statsita” platform, which indicated that the effects of these challenges are not limited to the producing countries, but also extend to the economies consumed as well.
On the other side of the supply chain, the European Union is the largest importer of cocoa pills, followed by both the United States and Canada.
These countries are almost completely dependent on cocoa imports from West Africa, which makes them vulnerable to market fluctuations if production decreases or supply chains are disrupted.
Continuous challenges and promising opportunities
Despite cautious optimism about the improvement of the next harvest, major challenges are still threatening the future of cocoa production, such as climate change, soil fertility deterioration, and the spread of plant diseases.
But on the other hand, this crisis provides an opportunity to rethink global supply chains, encourage investment in smart agriculture, and provide sustainable support to small farmers.
Such steps may be a key to ensuring the stability of the global market, and maintaining the sustainability of one of the most influential crops in the international agricultural economy.
