Scientists find temperatures in southern Africa will exceed rhino tolerance

Southern Africa is home to the vast majority of remaining black and white rhino populations (80% and 92%, respectively). The region’s climate is changing rapidly due to global warming. Traditional conservation efforts to protect rhinos have focused on poaching, but so far no analysis of the impact climate change could have on the animals.

A research team from the University of Massachusetts Amherst recently published an article in the journal Biodiversity that, although the area will be affected by both higher temperatures and changing precipitation, rhinos are more sensitive to rising temperatures, which will quickly exceed the maximum acceptable threshold for the animals. National park managers should begin planning adaptations to manage rising temperatures in hopes of preserving a future for rhinos.

The African continent has seen its average monthly temperatures rise by 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius over the past century, with up to two additional degrees of warming projected over the next 100 years, according to the Panel’s study. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on greenhouse gas emissions. broadcast scenario. It is also well known that climate change will disrupt historical precipitation patterns, but which of these, temperature or precipitation, will have the greatest impact on a species, such as white and black rhinos, which have long been the target of conservation efforts?

The issue is particularly important for rhinos because they do not sweat and cool themselves by bathing and finding shade.

“Generally speaking, most, if not all, species will be negatively affected in one way or another by climate change,” says lead author Hlelowenkhosi S. Mamba, who carried out this study. research as part of his graduate studies at UMass Amherst. “It is therefore important that conservationists conduct macroecological assessments over large areas to detect trends and model the future of some of the world’s most vulnerable species to prepare to mitigate the effects of change climate, thus minimizing global losses of biodiversity.”

To understand how our changing climate will affect rhino populations, Mamba and lead author Timothy Randhir, professor of environmental conservation at UMass Amherst, focused their efforts on South Africa’s five major national parks, from Namibia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Botswana, Tanzania and eSwatini. which are home to most rhinos. The parks represent diverse landscapes.

Mamba and Randhir then modeled two scenarios for each of the parks: the IPCC high emissions scenario and a more moderate emissions scenario. They projected temperature and precipitation for each of the scenarios out to 2055 and 2085 to arrive at a probability that each park would remain suitable for rhinos.

They found that each park will experience warming of about 2.2ºC by 2055 and 2.5ºC by 2085 under the moderate emissions scenario. In the high emissions scenario, each park will be around 2.8ºC warmer in 2055 and 4.6ºC in 2085.

Almost all parks will become drier as emissions increase, except for one, Tsavo West National Park in Kenya, which will see more rainfall.

This is very bad news for rhinos, because the team also found that while the change in precipitation won’t be ideal for rhinos, the temperature changes are greater than the species can handle.

“Temperature conditions in all study parks will become increasingly unsuitable for both species, but white rhinos are predicted to be affected earlier than black rhinos,” the authors write. “All parks show drastic changes in the likelihood of rhinos appearing.” And in high emissions scenarios, the probability of either species appearing drops to zero by 2085.

The worst news is from Etosha National Park in Namibia and Hlane National Park in Swatini, both of which will become too hot for rhinos in either case.

But to be warned is to be warned. “This article highlights the importance of using climate forecasts for park and rhino management,” says Randhir. “We propose that park managers think now about increasing water supplies, tree cover, stress monitoring and planning to enable rhino migration as the world warms.”