Russia has reduced the expectations of its returns from oil and gas exports to 2025 by 15% due to the weak oil prices, according to the Russian Ministry of Economy in a document seen by Reuters.
Energy exports returns are a major source of state budget financing.
This review puts additional pressure on the budget that is already burdened by the high defensive spending due to the war in Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump said this year’s drop in oil prices may help end the war in Ukraine.
The total economy expectations document, on the state budget, showed that Russia expects revenues of 200.3 billion dollars this year of oil and gas exports, or 15% less than the returns of $ 235 billion in 2024 and less for the same previous estimates of the government last September.
The Russian government also expects revenues of 220.4, 231 and 244.1 billion dollars in 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively, with a decrease of 4%, 1.1% and 2.6%, respectively, from previous estimates.
The returns of all oil and gas sales are about a third of the revenues of the Russian state budget.
The Russian Ministry of Economy has reduced its expectations for oil prices for 2025 by approximately 17%, and the Russian Central Bank warned this month that oil prices may face a period of weakness for several years.
Ural crude prices fell to their lowest levels since 2023 in April at about $ 53 a barrel, and crude was traded below $ 60 last week.
The document showed that the ministry also reduced its expectations for the production of Russian oil for the year 2025 to 516 million tons (10.32 million barrels per day), which represents a decrease from previous expectations of the production of 518.6 million tons.
The document also indicated that gas exports through pipelines, which collapsed in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine in 2022, will recover in 2025 to 89.1 billion cubic meters from 80.6 billion cubic meters in 2024 and 69.3 billion cubic meters in 2023.
