(Houston) Texas votes Tuesday to nominate Democratic and Republican candidates for the November midterm elections. Highly scrutinized primaries which will give first indications on winning electoral strategies after one year in office for Donald Trump.
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In this conservative southern state, Democrats hope to win a senatorial seat in November for the first time in more than 30 years, while Republicans intend to preserve their majority in the Senate in Washington.
A few months before the midterm elections, which are crucial for the continuation of the second Trump presidency, these primaries will provide the first trends on the messages that resonate with voters, against a backdrop of persistent discontent over the economy and questions about the outbreak of war against Iran.
Both parties are deep in debate over the best way to win in November.
For Republicans, can the candidates most behind Trump muster together? For Democrats, should we adopt a combative message at the risk of being divisive?
The first tallies are expected from 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. Eastern Time, Wednesday), but final results may not be known for several hours.
If none of the candidates exceeds the 50% mark of the votes, a second round will be necessary at the end of May.
Trump loyalists
On the right, outgoing senator John Cornyn, 74, a figure of the conservative establishment, is confronted with the Attorney General of Texas, Ken Paxton, 63, elected very Trumpist and with radical positions – notably against the right to abortion.
PHOTO JOEL ANGEL JUAREZ, REUTERS ARCHIVES
Outgoing Senator John Cornyn, 74
Both pride themselves on being loyal to the Republican president, who has refused to support a specific candidate.
According to polls, Ken Paxton has a good lead against John Cornyn due to his strong popularity within Donald Trump’s “MAGA” base.
PHOTO TONY GUTIERREZ, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton
But some are alarmed by the history of this ultraconservative elected official who survived an impeachment procedure in 2023, before an adultery scandal last year leading to a resounding divorce.
“Many Republican officials are worried that if Senator Cornyn loses the primary, a Democrat could be elected to the Senate for the first time since 1988,” Peter Loge, professor of political communications at George Washington University, told AFP.
In November, during elections where Donald Trump will not appear on the ballot, it could however be difficult to succeed in mobilizing certain voters who are more Trumpist than Republican.
Dilemma
Hence the party’s dilemma, which must find the best way to win more than a year after the billionaire’s return to the White House, by bringing the “MAGA” base to the polls, while not frightening the more moderate Republicans.
On the left, two strategic visions oppose each other for two progressive candidates.
On one side, Jasmine Crockett, a 44-year-old African-American MP known for her outspokenness, and who affirms that a fighting personality like her is necessary to oppose Donald Trump.
On the other, James Talarico, a 36-year-old white pastor elected to the Texas parliament, who made himself known thanks to notable interviews on conservative grounds, also claiming not to want to leave the exclusivity of the message of the Bible to the right.
Once widely favored, Jasmine Crockett has seen the polls tighten little by little and the results look uncertain.
Whoever the Democratic winner is, however, they will have a lot to do to dethrone the Republicans in November in a state of Texas which remains largely conservative.
