Future population trends in SSP2 ranked by degree of urbanization for four regions of the United States. To simplify the comparison, the values are normalized for each city class and region. This means, in the top left figure, that among all urban cities in the Northeast region, 77.4% are likely to increase by 2100, while 17.3% are likely to depopulate . From the figure, we see that while urban cities in all regions will gain population, about 17% in the Northeast and Midwest are likely to become depopulated. Rural areas will shrink in all regions. The number of suburban and exurban cities likely to grow in population is higher in the South and West than in the Northeast and Midwest. Gray cells without values indicate that no urban city is likely to lose population in the West and South. Credit: Nature Cities (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s44284-023-00011-7
A trio of environmental engineers at the University of Illinois at Chicago used census data and an annual population survey to make predictions about the population growth or decline of U.S. cities in the years before 2100.
In their article published in the journal Nature CitiesUttara Sutradhar, Lauryn Spearing, and Sybil Derrible, describe how they used publicly available data sources and climate model results to make predictions about population changes in U.S. cities in the coming years under various scenarios.
Making predictions about the evolution of the urban population is difficult due to the number of variables that can impact growth, stagnation or even depopulation. Factors such as immigration, tax rates, housing prices, birth rates, job availability and even the political climate can impact people, causing them to stay or leave.
Added to all this is global warming, which could make some cities too hot to remain habitable. Others, particularly on ocean coasts, could be submerged. To make the task a little less daunting, the researchers chose to approach the problem by examining recent and current demographic trends.
To make their estimates, the researchers analyzed U.S. Census data from the years 2000 to 2020 to track current population trends for 24,295 U.S. cities for which consistent data was available. They used two datasets from the Census Bureau’s 2020 TIGER/Line Shapefiles to make estimates of future trends for 31,568 U.S. cities. They then compared the observed trends with estimates of climate change under several scenarios.
The team found that up to 50% of U.S. cities could experience population declines over the next 70 years, up from 43% in 2020. They also found that the largest population declines will likely occur in the Midwest and Northeast, but not in the Midwest and Northeast. larger cities, such as New York and Chicago. Conversely, they believe cities in the South and West will see stronger growth, particularly those that are well-established and currently growing, like Phoenix and Houston.
The researchers suggest that work like theirs is important because city planners need long lead times to prepare for either type of scenario. Cities experiencing rapid growth may experience pressure on their services, while those experiencing decline may suddenly find it difficult to provide services with a shrinking tax base.
More information:
Uttara Sutradhar et al, Depopulation and associated challenges for US cities by 2100, Nature Cities (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s44284-023-00011-7
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