Pioneering survey methodology sets new standards for assessing global scientific consensus

An international study led by Professor Peter Vickers of the University of Durham presents a new methodology to rapidly assess scientific consensus on a global scale.

This innovative approach offers the potential to collect representative, real-time data on the opinions of scientists across different fields, geographies, and over time – an advancement that could reshape policymaking and public understanding in areas ranging from health sciences to climate change.

The study, conducted in June 2023, brought together a global network of 30 institutions across 12 countries. More than 20,000 scientists were invited to participate, resulting in 6,807 responses to a single-report survey on the causes of COVID-19. The work is published in PLOS ONE.

The success of this methodology demonstrates a robust and scalable approach to evaluating scientific opinion with high response rates, a low percentage of refusals, and rapid turnaround times.

By creating a concise 10-second survey accessible through a network of local university representatives, researchers were able to achieve the highest response rate ever recorded for a large-scale global scientific survey. This method is designed not only for rapid implementation but also to be adaptable, ensuring its relevance for future research in evolving areas.

Reflecting on the study, Professor Peter Vickers of Durham University said: “Humanity has never had access to data on the opinion of the global scientific community, on any subject and at any time. I’m really excited to see where this could go. »

The study achieved an overall response rate of 33.9%, a significant improvement over traditional survey approaches, which often generate lower engagement. The response rate was particularly high among physicists, biologists and earth scientists, reaching up to 55% at some institutions.

By leveraging local academic contacts, the new approach has real potential to overcome common obstacles in large-scale research, such as low international representation and slow data collection.

The survey also revealed important trends: establishments in several countries reported high levels of agreement, although notable variations were observed.

A follow-up survey conducted at CONICET in Argentina, prompted by an initially lower rate of agreement, resulted in almost unanimous agreement, illustrating the method’s ability to reveal regional differences and explore how results can be affected by methodological decision points.

This survey methodology offers vast potential for repeated, large-scale scientific assessments that can quickly inform urgent policy debates. The method has already expanded to include more than 50,000 scientists across 80 institutions around the world.

By creating a sustainable framework for rapidly assessing scientific consensus, this initiative provides an unprecedented resource for policymakers, educators, and the public.