One year of Trump 2.0 | The challenges ahead

The first year of Donald Trump’s return to the White House was marked by extraordinary policies. What challenges now await the president and his team?

Legal decisions

By signing a series of controversial executive orders and bypassing Congress to implement his policies, Trump has attracted hundreds of lawsuits. The metaphor of spaghetti thrown at the wall has often been used to illustrate strategy: will decisions stick or will they fall to the ground? As the constitutionality of the policies is tested by multiple courts, a period of time has already passed, allowing the administration to continue its momentum. “(Administration members) have discovered that if they persist, if they continue to act, they can stay ahead of the pace of the courts,” says Edward Alden of Western Washington University. Decisions from the Supreme Court are expected, in particular on the constitutionality of the implementation of customs duties by proclaiming a state of emergency and on the withdrawal of land rights for the children of immigrants. Regardless of whether the judges find the president right or wrong, there will be challenges ahead.

Economy

Trump had promised a “golden age,” marked by the return of manufacturing jobs and the falling cost of living. His opponents anticipated a collapse. Although the markets were shaken by the announcement of customs duties on many countries on April 2, the American economy did not collapse. But the Americans continue to denounce the high cost. Thus, 64% of people surveyed by CNN during the second week of January believed that the president had not done enough to reduce the price of everyday goods. Could hesitant voters, for whom this question was decisive, make the Republicans pay the price? Trump pointed the finger at the Federal Reserve Chairman’s refusal to cut interest rates further – a move that could increase inflation, experts have warned. These criticisms could spell a setback for the economy if the Fed is seen as a tool of the White House.

International relations

“Trump talks about war, annexation of Greenland, interventions in Iran…the international system should remain vigilant about what the United States might do under his leadership over the next three years,” says Casey Dominguez of the University of San Diego. NATO countries are growing increasingly concerned about Trump’s insistence on acquiring Greenland. His statements on the settlement of the war in Ukraine, putting forward a cession of Ukrainian territory to Russia, without providing guarantees from the Russian president, also worry Europeans and Canadians. The National Security Strategy published in November shows the administration’s desire to invest more in the Western Hemisphere. The year began with the capture of Venezuela’s then-disputed president, Nicolás Maduro. Trump did not rule out intervention in Colombia, and predicted the fall of the regime in Cuba. What will be the next interventions of the American administration in 2026?

Health

Trump is omnipresent, multiplying press briefings and meetings. But he will still be 80 years old in June, and rumors about his health problems have been numerous over the past year. The one who accused his predecessor of sleeping at work, nicknamed him “Sleepy Joe”, was filmed several times with his eyes closed during meetings, appearing to have dozed off. He claimed to have passed his cognitive tests and health exams with flying colors. But doubts persist, photos revealing made-up bruises on his hands and apparent swelling on his ankles. In addition to the health of the president, that of Americans could also cause a challenge for the Republicans in 2026. The costs linked to health care costs, first, but also the controversies surrounding the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., known for his anti-vaccine positions.

Elections

In November the mid-term elections will be held. Trump’s comments already show that he is worried about a possible loss of the slim Republican majority in Congress. A third of Senate positions are at stake; the battle already promises to be difficult for the Democrats, the seats being in states where they will have to redouble their efforts to make gains and maintain their gains. It will be tighter in the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election. If Republicans lose the majority in the House, it becomes difficult to pass laws. Democrats could also launch impeachment proceedings (impeachment) against Trump, with a simple majority of representatives. But it would then be up to the senators to hold a trial and decide. At least two-thirds of the vote is required for impeachment. The other thing to watch for in 2026: will members of the Republican Party continue to support Trump if his popularity declines or will fractures reveal themselves? And how could this influence the administration’s decisions?