New method detects cosmic threats by extracting 3D direction of plasma ejections from 2D ultraviolet images of the Sun

A team of scientists has unveiled a new method for early estimation of the direction of the coronal mass ejection (CME) in 3D space. The revolutionary technique, named DIRECD (“Dimming Inferred Estimate of CME Direction”), will provide crucial data to mitigate potential negative impacts on various industries and technological systems, both in space and on Earth.

The results of the study, carried out by the international team, will be published in the journal published in Astronomy and astrophysics. In the meantime, the research paper is already accessible via the arXiv preprint repository.

Coronal mass ejections are giant magnetic plasma bubbles that are ejected from the sun into surrounding space at speeds of several hundred to several thousand kilometers per second. If the bubble of charged particles is directed towards the Earth, it can cause geomagnetic storms and polar auroras when it hits the Earth’s magnetosphere, which can lead to serious problems in the operation of space and terrestrial technological systems and create risks radiation for astronauts.

Unfortunately, early detection of a coronal mass ejection is currently very difficult, because it usually only becomes visible in a developed stage, when it appears in the field of view of special instruments, called coronagraphs, which create a artificial solar eclipse by obscuring the solar disk by several of its rays. To meet this challenge, in order to estimate from the start the direction of propagation of a coronal mass ejection in 3D space, the DIRECD method uses indirect traces of coronal mass ejections on the sun – the coronal gradations, which are dark areas in extreme ultraviolet images.

The dimmings are caused by the expansion and ejection of material from the solar corona during a CME. The current research and the DIRECD method result from previous work, in which the team showed the links between CME grading and morphology, demonstrating the great potential of coronal gradations to detect and analyze CMEs at an early stage of their evolution.

Shantanu Jain, Ph.D. from Skoltech. student and lead author of the study, expressed his excitement about the method’s capabilities, saying: “Our method can provide early insight into the direction of CME propagation before it is even observed by onboard coronagraphs satellites. It is surprising that we can accurately estimate 3D parameters of the CME, such as 3D direction, with only 2D dimming information extracted from solar images at a very early stage of the solar flare.

“The technique will be particularly useful for Earth-directed events, addressing the challenges associated with their assessment from Sun-Earth line-based coronagraphs, as they primarily observe the expansion of the CME rather than its propagation. “Right now we are approaching the maximum 11-year solar cycle and we should expect to see more sunspots, solar flares and coronal mass ejections erupting from the sun,” added Tatiana Podladchikova, associate professor at Skoltech, co-author of the study.

This pioneering research opens new avenues for advancing space weather forecasting capabilities, providing potential benefits to industries dependent on satellite communications, airlines, power grids, communications, transportation, pipelines and utility services. emergency. As solar activities continue to play a crucial role in our interconnected technological systems, the DIRECD method provides an important tool to improve our ability to predict and mitigate the impacts of solar storms.

The research was carried out in collaboration with researchers from NorthWest Research Associates, the University of Graz and its Kanzelhöhe Observatory.