One of the problems with India’s foreign policy is that for historical reasons it advocates non-alignment with the US or Russia and China, while realistically everything points to supporting democracies. Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia a month ago and then to Ukraine on Friday only highlighted this contradiction further. Yesterday, Modi again avoided taking a firm position on the war in Ukraine and reiterated his country’s policy of neutrality. But during his visit, he also attended a memorial service for Ukrainian children who died in the war with Russia. He also signed four non-military cooperation agreements with Ukraine.
1) Why does India call itself non-aligned?
India’s non-alignment dates back to the Cold War. At that time, Indian leaders tried to advocate a third way, between the USSR and the United States. Jawahar Nehru, the first prime minister of independent India, tried to industrialize India with a policy that combined free markets, a planned economy, and economic autonomy. In practice, this third way never really worked, but it allowed India to maintain good relations with both the United States and Russia. Today, this third way finds its continuation in India’s policy of neutrality toward Ukraine.
2) Why would India now benefit from aligning itself with the American camp?
India faces commercial and geostrategic rivalry with China. The Chinese government has increasingly close relations with several of India’s neighbors, such as Burma. China is seeking to expand its markets. Its fleet is becoming more threatening every day, including in the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, China and India have several border disputes. Furthermore, the United States is India’s largest export market, with 18% of its exports, while China only ranks 4th, with 3%. Finally, India remains a democracy, as demonstrated by the last elections. Therefore, for reasons of support for democracy, trade competition, and Chinese military threats, India has a growing interest in distancing itself from the Russo-Chinese couple.
3) What is stopping India from moving away from Russia?
India spends over 2% of its GDP on military expenditure. It is therefore one of the world’s largest buyers of arms. Russia accounts for about 50% of India’s arms purchases. Previously, it accounted for 70%. Despite this, the Indian army remains heavily dependent on Russian technology and spare parts. On the other hand, India benefits from the oil that Russia sells it at a discount.
4) Can India act as an arbiter in the war between Ukraine and Russia?
Arbitration between Russia and Ukraine is not yet ripe. For it to be so, either significant military victories would be needed or one of the two countries would be in danger of collapse. However, as long as China supports Russia or Ukraine’s allies remain at its side, such a collapse remains hypothetical.
5) Will India finally fall into line?
Given the benefits that India would gain, it may well be that in the coming years the country will increasingly align itself with the democratic camp.
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