Modelling study suggests heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century if current climate policies are implemented

Heat-related deaths could triple in Europe by 2100 due to current climate policies, mainly among people living in the southern regions of the continent, according to a study published in the British newspaper The Guardian. The Lancet Public Health newspaper.

The results highlight the need to strengthen policies to limit global warming in order to protect vulnerable regions and members of society from the effects of higher temperatures.

In recent years, Europe has experienced some of its hottest summers, which have coincided with high mortality rates. Older people are at increased risk of death from extreme temperatures, and the number of older people is expected to increase over time.

Most previous studies of deaths from hot and cold temperatures in Europe have contained little detail at the local level or have consisted of in-depth assessments for individual countries, mainly in Western Europe. This study is the first in-depth analysis of current and future health risks from hot and cold temperatures in Europe to examine the projected impact on regions within countries.

Overall, with global warming of 3°C (high estimate based on current climate policies), the number of heat-related deaths in Europe could increase from 43,729 to 128,809 by the end of the century. In the same scenario, deaths attributed to cold (currently much higher than those due to heat) would remain high, with a slight decrease from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100.

Dr Juan-Carlos Ciscar, from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, said: “Our analysis shows that the ratio of cold-related deaths to heat-related deaths will change dramatically this century, with heat-related deaths increasing in all regions of Europe and soaring in some areas. At the same time, cold-related deaths will decrease slightly overall. Our study covers more than 1,000 regions in 30 countries, allowing us to identify hotspots where people will be most affected in the future.”

The authors of the new study used data from 1,368 regions in 30 European countries to model current disparities in mortality from hot and cold temperatures and estimate how risks will change by 2100. The dataset, generated by analyzing the epidemiological and socioeconomic characteristics of 854 European cities with populations greater than 50,000, was used to model regional mortality risk for different age groups (from 20 to over 85 years). Estimates of current and future temperature-related deaths were produced for four levels of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C) using a combination of 11 different climate models.

The study estimates that hot and cold temperatures currently cause 407,538 deaths each year in Europe, of which 363,809 are cold-related and 43,729 are heat-related. Cold-related deaths are highest in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States and lowest in Central Europe and parts of Southern Europe, with rates ranging from 25 to 300 deaths per 100,000 people. Heat-related deaths range from 0.6 to 47 deaths per 100,000 people, with the lowest rates in the UK and Scandinavian countries and the highest in Croatia and the southernmost parts of the continent.

With a 3°C rise, heat-related deaths are expected to increase by 13.5%, leading to an additional 55,000 deaths each year, due to an increase in heat-related deaths. Most deaths will be among people over the age of 85.

In Europe, cold kills about eight times more people than heat (ratio of 8.3:1), but this ratio is expected to decline significantly by the end of the century. With global warming of 3°C, it is expected to fall to 2.6:1 by 2100. In contrast, under a scenario based on the 1.5°C warming target of the Paris Agreement, this ratio would fall to 6.7:1.

By 2100, cold-related deaths are projected to decrease negligibly on average across Europe under a 3°C warming scenario, and to be between 29 and 225 deaths per 100,000 people in European countries. A moderate reduction in cold-related deaths is projected in Eastern Europe, and a slight decline in parts of Germany, France, Italy and Portugal. However, cold-related deaths are projected to increase in Ireland (nearly doubling), Norway and Sweden, all of which are projected to see a large increase in the number of citizens aged 85 and over.

Heat-related deaths are expected to increase in all regions of Europe if warming reaches 3°C, with mortality rates rising sharply, with a three-fold increase in the European average rate, between 2 and 117 deaths per 100,000 people in European countries. Hotspots that will be particularly affected by greater warming and an increase in the elderly population include Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France.

Dr David García-León, also from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, said: “We find that deaths from both hot and cold temperatures in Europe will increase significantly, as many heat-related deaths are expected to occur as the climate warms and the population ages, while deaths from cold are expected to decrease only slightly in comparison.

“Our study also identifies hotspots where the risk of death from high temperatures is expected to increase significantly over the next decade. More targeted policies are needed to protect these areas and those members of society most exposed to extreme temperatures.”

The authors acknowledge some limitations. Their results are based on data from people living in urban areas (who typically face higher levels of heat stress, particularly heat, than those living in rural areas), meaning the estimates may be slightly overestimated. The results also do not account for gender, ethnicity, or effects on infants (another vulnerable group).

In a commentary, Dr Matteo Pinna Pintor, from the Luxembourg Institute for Socio-Economic Research (LISER), said: “(…) while the increase in heat-related mortality is largely attributable to greater heat exposure, an ageing and therefore more vulnerable population will significantly hamper the reduction in cold-related mortality. Cold-related mortality is expected to increase in about half of the countries assessed, particularly in northern latitudes, but also in parts of southern, central and eastern Europe.

“These results reinforce previously expressed skepticism about the substantial and unconditional reduction in cold-related mortality as temperate regions warm. This skepticism is, in turn, consistent with age-related vulnerability to cold and with the persistence of some excess mortality risk, particularly from respiratory tract infections and associated complications, over a wide range of so-called “mild” temperatures (about 9 to 18 °C). This implies that the mortality burden due to cold exposure in an aging population will respond slowly to changes in the temperature distribution.”