As in 2020, the American presidential election seems set to be decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in a handful of particularly contested states, where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are concentrating their final campaign efforts.
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Unlike the states won over to the cause of the Democratic vice-president, such as California or New York, or to that of the former Republican president, such as Kentucky or Oklahoma, these seven territories do not clearly lean towards one party or for the other.
The Americans call them swing states“key” or “pivot” states in French.
Pennsylvania
Clearly the most coveted state, the arbiter of the election.
Donald Trump won by a narrow margin in 2016 and Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020.
Blue-collar workers from this northeastern state, which has experienced great industrial decline, have left the Democratic ship to join Donald Trump. But Kamala Harris intends to win back part of it thanks to the major infrastructure projects launched by Joe Biden, job creators, and the support of unions.
The big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh lean towards the vice-president, while the former president is banking on the rural population.
Michigan
Another Democratic stronghold marked by deindustrialization which switched to Donald Trump in 2016, to everyone’s surprise. Joe Biden won it back in 2020.
The behavior of the many Muslim voters or those from Arab countries in this state, revolted for a year by American support for Israel in its war in Gaza, will be crucial for Kamala Harris.
In this cradle of the automobile industry, the Democratic candidate, however, received the support of the sector’s major union, the UAW.
Donald Trump is banking on the cost of living to bring together the middle class, portraying his opponent as co-responsible for a Democratic mandate marked by inflation.
Wisconsin
Again, a state lost by the Democrats in 2016 and won in 2020.
The Republicans, whose party was born in this state, held their major convention there in July.
The Democrats hope to attract moderate Republicans repelled by Donald Trump’s outrageous rhetoric, by pointing out the “existential threat to democracy” that he would represent.
Georgia
In the wake of major anti-racist movements, this conservative state with a large African-American population (around 30% of the electorate) preferred Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.
Kamala Harris, who could become the first black woman to reach the White House, hopes to appeal to young people and minorities in Atlanta. But she seems to have difficulty capturing the vote of black men.
The religious electorate, quite substantial in this state, praises Donald Trump as the architect of the cancellation of the federal guarantee of abortion.
North Carolina
The only one of the seven “swing states” of 2024 to have voted Republican in 2020. The state has not voted Democratic since 2008 but has elected a Democratic governor since 2017.
After the devastating passage of Hurricane Helen, which left at least 96 dead in North Carolina, Donald Trump spread false accusations about the government response to the disaster. But the impact on the local electorate is difficult to determine.
A bit like in Georgia, Kamala Harris is banking on African-Americans and young people.
Arizona
Rather Republican land, this southwestern state created a surprise in 2020 by choosing Biden down to the wire, with 10,457 votes in advance.
But the theme of illegal immigration, hammered out by the Republican candidate in increasingly harsh terms, can hit home in this state bordering Mexico, despite the large number of Latin Americans.
There is, however, hope for Kamala Harris: in 2022, the state rejected a Trumpist candidate for governor, electing a Democrat.
Nevada
The least populous swing state, known for its Las Vegas casinos, has not voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004.
But the conservatives believe they can turn it around, relying in particular on the Latin American population, which is increasingly breaking away from the Democratic fold, particularly men.
Supporters of Kamala Harris hope that the arrival of neo-residents, younger and more educated employees often coming from neighboring California to work in tech or the energy transition, can work in their favor.
