Rome- At the beginning of 2025, the non-renewal of the contract between Ukraine and Russia to transport gas sparked controversy and varying concerns among European countries, which are most dependent on Russian gas coming through Ukrainian territory.
Slovakia and Hungary, located in Central Europe, face varying difficulties in importing Russian gas, due to the war in Ukraine. As for Bulgaria and Serbia, they are considered the least affected in Eastern Europe, while Italy in the south did not succumb to the interruption of Russian gas supplies, and the same applies to Germany and France. And Austria, which took precautionary measures some time ago.
Slovakia and Hungary…the solution is the sea
During the summer of 2024, various Western media reports appeared for the first time about political efforts to resolve the dispute related to the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary. Then the pace of talk about the issue increased repeatedly and increasingly in the last quarter of last year, with signals emerging at the time from the Slovak side to… Possibility of reaching a solution.
Slovakia, which is adjacent to the Ukrainian border and is greatly affected, continued to race against time in consultations to find European and Ukrainian support, due to its dependence on about 85% of Russian gas, despite the decline in supplies of Moscow gas flowing through the Veliki Kaposhany station to Slovakia in the third quarter of last year. To less than 34.5 million cubic metres.
Slovakia seemed to be outside the European policy aimed at abandoning Russian gas, and its political leadership continued to insist on the continued transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, as its Prime Minister, Robert Fico, held meetings with Ukrainian officials and supported the efforts of SBB to reach a clear agreement.
Hungary also supported this trend, although the extent of its damage remained less, by stopping the transit of gas coming from Russia through Ukrainian territory.
Hungary still benefits from Russian gas, through another crossing, which is the “Balkan Stream” pipeline, which is originally an extension of the “Turk Stream” pipeline, which is an infrastructure that Ankara strongly supported (its construction was completed before the Ukraine war) and connects the Russian Federation to the White Continent. Across the Black Sea.
Hungary relies on about 4.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually, under a 15-year agreement signed in 2021, including supplies via Ukraine as well, which means that Kiev’s decision not to renew the contract that regulates the transportation of gas, between its “Naftogaz” organization and its counterpart Russian Gazprom may force Hungary to search for alternative routes or sources of supply, as is also the case for Slovakia.
In this regard, Italian researcher (of Iraqi origin) Dr. Amer Al-Taie says, “The interruption of gas supplies coming through Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary may greatly threaten the heating and industrial sector.”
He added in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that “the gas shortage will lead to a steady rise in energy prices, which will increase pressure on consumers and governments, especially since these two countries are middle-income.”
Energy engineer Amer Al-Taie, an energy engineer and academic from Politecnico Torino, confirmed that Slovakia and Hungary face difficulty in finding alternatives due to the absence of ports and infrastructure. “They are countries that do not have any coastlines. All of this requires large and long-term investments.”
He continued, “These two countries will have to find a balance between supporting European governments’ sanctions on Russia and ensuring gas supplies. This puts them in a sensitive and unenviable geopolitical position.”
Serbia and Bulgaria… cooperation and import
Both Serbia and Bulgaria, in Eastern Europe, are pursuing different strategies than the countries that share their borders with Ukraine. The two countries aim to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on Russian gas, through infrastructure development and international cooperation.
Serbia imports about 81% of its total gas needs from Russia, which is equivalent to about 3 billion cubic meters annually.
As for Bulgaria, according to the latest statistics, in 2023 the country imported about 2.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a large portion of which came from Russia.
Amer Al-Taie explains that Serbia and Bulgaria are moving to diversify their energy sources to reduce dependence on Russian gas, and this is done by connecting them to the pipeline. “Repent”To transport Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe.
According to Al-Taie, the two countries are jointly strengthening contact points for gas supply with Romanian-Greek distribution companies, where the existing liquefied gas import terminal is used.
In a floating unit for storing and transforming liquefied natural gas, with a capacity of up to 5.5 billion cubic metres, in reference to the Alexandroupolis station (reinforced by sea and land pipelines), which began operating on October 1, 2024.
Serbia and Bulgaria have established liquefied gas infrastructure in nearby ports such as Croatia, and all of this – Al-Taie says – requires agreements and the creation of contracts with alternative suppliers such as Qatar, Algeria, or the United States, and this is what concerns near-term scenarios.
As for the long-term strategy, the same speaker stresses that there must also be investment in solar energy, wind, and hydroelectric energy, and the development of clean energy projects and green hydrogen as a source of energy, while emphasizing the importance of having awareness campaigns in these two countries to rationalize energy consumption.
Italy… proactive solutions
With the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022, Italy sought urgent alternatives to Russian gas so as not to find itself at the mercy of Moscow.
About two months after the outbreak of the war, Mario Draghi (former Italian Prime Minister) was able to convince the Al-Mouradia Palace in Algeria to supply his country with gas, and the man then set about diversifying gas sources, by searching for other alternative suppliers.
Since the first days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Italy has succeeded in adopting a policy of reducing dependence on Russian gas to cover its needs.
Indeed, in less than 3 years, Italy reduced this dependence from about 50% to 20%, and the Italian state signed important agreements with Algeria, Qatar, and Azerbaijan, Al-Taie says.
But Al-Taie pointed out that the cost of this gas remains higher than the cost of Russian gas, which is an important economic challenge for the Italian state, says energy engineer Amer Al-Taie.
The most important strategies followed by Italy, according to the same speaker:
- Increasing liquefied gas imports
- Building new stations
- Expanding the capacity of currently available stations
- Signing long-term contracts with other countries such as Egypt, Mozambique, and then some North African countries
- Investing in renewable energy, sun, wind, hydroelectricity
- Investing in green energy, green hydrogen
- Improving energy efficiency in buildings and factories in order to rationalize consumption
- Strengthening cooperation with other European countries to develop gas storage facilities and emergency mechanisms in the event of any damage to some pipes, such as what happened in the Nordstream pipeline.
These measures, according to Al-Taie, may give Italy greater independence in the field of energy and may lead to price stability. “Italy has a pivotal and leadership role, especially in the European Union countries, since it has many ports and is close to alternative sources for providing natural gas.”
For his part, geopolitical analyst and lawyer Francesco Catania believes that the issue of cutting off Russian gas is important to prevent Russia from making profits from transporting or selling gas.
He told Al Jazeera Net, “Despite our request from Ukraine to transfer the gas allocated to Slovakia, we must ensure that this gas is not of Russian origin.”
He adds, “Slovakia, despite its small size and being the equivalent of a large city in Italy, faces the risk of being exposed to crises without adequate energy supplies.”
Catania believes that Italy, unlike some other European countries, has moved to diversify its energy sources, taking advantage of its position as a logistical platform in the Mediterranean.
He continues by saying, “This situation allowed Italy to replace Russian gas with other sources and support other European countries such as Austria and Moldova by selling part of its reserves, and it (Italy) is able to do the same with Slovakia.”
Catania criticizes the political leadership in Slovakia, especially Prime Minister Robert Fico, for not planning a strategy to reduce his country’s energy dependence on Russia.
Germany, France and Austria…salvation
In the rest of Europe, Germany gradually reduced imports of Russian gas starting in 2022, then began to significantly diversify its gas supplies in 2023, through agreements with other supplying countries and increasing the use of liquefied natural gas.
In France, after half a year of war between Russia and Ukraine, President Emmanuel Macron announced on September 5, 2022 that the proportion of Russian gas in relation to the total needs of Europe had decreased from 50% that was before the war to 9%, and this decrease was significant. .
In 2023, France significantly reduced Russian gas imports, falling from about 20% to 10% of total consumption.
As for Austria, in the same year, the country imported about 98%, but it was preparing towards the end of 2024 to get rid of its dependency on Russian gas, by finding supply alternatives, including Germany and Italy, and contracting with other suppliers that do not bring Russian gas.
