Damascus – The echoes of US President Donald Trump’s announcement last Tuesday about his country’s decision to lift the economic sanctions imposed on Syria are still hesitating in various parts of the country, exciting a wave of anticipation and feelings of hope that economic stability can be restored and the advancement of the repercussions of the war and the siege, which have exhausted the Syrians for years.
The American sanctions, which lasted for nearly 46 years, included most of the vital sectors in the country, whether directly or indirectly through a system of legislative laws and executive orders issued by successive departments in Washington since 1979 against the backdrop of accusations against the deposed Syrian regime to sponsor terrorism, destabilize neighboring countries such as Iraq and Lebanon, commit violations of human rights, suppressing the Syrian revolution, suppressing the Syrian revolution, In addition to accusations of converting the country into a center of crossing and trading drugs.
Although some sanctions theoretically excluded humanitarian sectors such as health and medicine, their practical impact extended to the deterioration of many sectors, and led to the deepening of living crises and the decline in the quality of basic services.
The most prominent beneficiary sectors
Syrian economist and banking expert Dr. Ibrahim Gosheji believes that the lifting of sanctions represents a “pivotal turning point” in the country’s economic path, pointing – in his statements to Al -Jazeera Net – that this decision opens the door to reactivating the productive sectors, achieving a kind of monetary stability, and enhancing the reserves of the central bank, which may allow the government to restructure the economy and achieve sustainable growth.
The energy and oil sector is at the forefront of the sectors that are expected to benefit directly from the decision, according to Gosheji, who explained that this sector was one of the most affected, as strict restrictions were imposed on exporting Syrian oil, which led to a significant decrease in government revenues.
“With the lifting of sanctions, Syria can resume export of oil and gas, which would enhance public revenues in US dollars, and contribute to restarting the refineries and oil installations that have been negligent or destroyed.”
With regard to the banking and financial sector, Gosheji believes that the insulation imposed on the Syrian banking system will allow the re -integration of Syrian banks into the global financial system, which facilitates foreign trade movement and restores activity to investment and financing channels.
He also indicated that the previous sanctions have led to almost complete paralysis in international financial transfers, which negatively affected the Syrian citizen and trade and production sectors.
He adds that lifting restrictions on the trade and industry sector will enable local companies to import raw materials and necessary industrial equipment, which supports local production and provides new job opportunities for thousands of unemployed youth.
Despite the focus on these three sectors, the US sanctions also affected other important sectors such as the military industry, communications and technology, tourism and travel, agriculture, air transport, and the reconstruction sector, and even the health and pharmaceutical sector that was affected despite the declared exceptions.
Investment challenges and banking structure
In turn, the economist, Dr. Osama Al -Qadi, stressed the need to focus in the next stage on developing the organizational and legal structure of investment, and the banking structure, as they are essential factors in the success of the new stage.
The judge explained, in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, that friendly countries, led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, have accelerated to send specialized technical teams to Syria to help modernize the banking sector, as well as support from the expected international Monetary Fund experts working in Damascus, who are already working to qualify local elements and enhance banking infrastructure to comply with international standards.
The judge suggested that the flow of requests from foreign companies to invest and enter the Syrian market, as well as financial transfers aimed at supporting reconstruction efforts.
But he warned at the same time that these developments remain dependent on the readiness of the Syrian administrative and institutional structure to exploit these investments and achieve transparency.
In the context of his analysis, the judge pointed out that rebuilding the Syrian economy requires addressing the damage to it for decades, as the previous regime held the responsibility of what it described as “the systematic destruction of the economy”, warning of the repetition of the old policies that led to the isolation of the country.
Expensive improvement in the exchange rate of the lira
On the impact of the decision on the local currency, Gosheji explained that the value of the Syrian pound witnessed a remarkable improvement after the announcement of the lifting of sanctions, in an indication that reflects a gradual restoration of confidence in the national economy.
He pointed out that this improvement is a candidate to continue in the event that foreign investment flows increase and stimulate trade exchange, which may reduce inflationary pressures and improve the purchasing power of citizens.
He stressed that the lifting of sanctions may enable the Syrian Central Bank to regain access to its frozen assets abroad, which enhances its cash reserves and provides additional tools to intervene in the market to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.
At the same time, Qoshji pointed out that the composition of a sustainable foreign cash reserve requires a long time, and it is linked to an actual surplus of foreign currencies, and not only with the availability of liquidity resulting from trading in commercial banks.
For his part, the judge stressed that the demand for the Syrian pound will gradually increase with the improvement of the business environment, expecting this to be reflected positively on the exchange rate within a year or two if economic conditions continue to improve.
Wide dimensions to lift the sanctions
Qoshji believes that the sanctions were a major obstacle to any real economic growth, as it caused almost complete financial and commercial isolation, a collapse in investment flows, and a sharp decline in GDP from about $ 70 billion in 2010 to approximately $ 5 billion in 2023.
According to Qoshji, lifting these sanctions open the way for Syria to return to the global financial system and properly resume trade exchanges, which reduces the cost of production that depends mainly on imported materials, and thus enhances the opportunities for the economy.
Historical context
It is noteworthy that the US sanctions on Syria have already started since the 1980s, but they escalated significantly after 2003, to reach its peak after the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011, where Washington imposed successive sanctions targeting government figures and entities, including the Syrian Central Bank and the ministries of defense and the interior, as well as military and security institutions.
One of the most prominent pressure tools was the “Caesar Law”, which entered into force in June 2020 and was more influential on the Syrian economy. It was not limited to punishing the Syrian regime only, but also included any party or individual, inside or outside Syria, providing material, technical or financial support to the Syrian government.
This law led, according to observers, to a major collapse in the value of the Syrian pound at the time, and contributed to undermining any efforts to rebuild the country without an integrated political path.
