Since Kamala Harris was nominated as the Democratic candidate, her support has been increasing slowly but surely, while Donald Trump’s has plateaued.
When he threw in the towel, Joe Biden was trailing by more than three points in national polls and was destined to lose key states.
Today, Kamala Harris leads in national polls by an average of two to three points and is statistically tied with Trump in key states.
Can she keep this momentum going and win? It’s entirely possible.
The order
To win, Harris will have to reassure those who see her as a risky choice because they know little about her, persuade the few undecided voters and mobilize her voters to register and vote.
There are reasons to believe she can do it. Her performance in the September 10 debate is one reason. While that victory didn’t result in a dramatic increase in her support, it does allow her to project an air of competence and confidence. That can’t hurt when it comes to reassuring, persuading and mobilizing.
Recent polls indicate that those who believe Harris will win have significantly outnumbered those who predict a Trump victory. According to some studies, this is a good omen of victory.
Positive signs
There is no shortage of reasons to believe that Harris’s advance could continue through November 5.
In early July, the average of polls (according to FiveThirtyEight) indicated that about 53% of Americans had a negative opinion of their vice president and 36% had a positive opinion. Today, those two figures are at 47%. In short, the more the public sees her in action, the better she is perceived. That bodes well.
The enthusiasm generated by Harris has also translated into phenomenal fundraising that will help pay for the late-season advertising blitz in key states. Democrats also have a well-oiled get-out-the-vote machine.
Finally, one of the best predictors of the electoral performance of the incumbent party’s candidates is the improvement in economic conditions in the few months leading up to the election. In this sense, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and the end of the period of high inflation that it signals are very good news for Harris.
There is, however, no shortage of potential clouds on the horizon, including the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In short, the foundations of Kamala Harris’ progress are strong enough to believe that she has a better chance of moving forward just enough to win than she does of moving backward just enough to lose. But she cannot afford to make mistakes. Her opponent, on the other hand, seems able to do or say anything with impunity.
Statement of the week
“If I have to fabricate stories to get the American media to pay attention to the suffering of the American people, that’s what I’m going to do.”
– JD Vance, in an interview with CNN, September 15.
The Ohio senator and Republican vice presidential candidate admitted in an interview that the stories about pets being captured and eaten by Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were fictional. The consequences, however, are very real. The city has experienced a series of bomb threats, schools have been closed and members of the Haitian community have been targeted with harassment and threats since the lies were repeated by Donald Trump during the Sept. 10 debate.
The number of the week
-0.5%
The Federal Reserve announced a half-percentage-point cut in its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, to about 4.9%. The cut eases the burden on millions of borrowers and sends a signal to markets that the Fed believes the period of high inflation that followed the COVID crisis is over. The larger-than-expected cut is welcome news for Democrats, as inflation has been a major source of dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration. Donald Trump has accused the Fed chairman, a Republican he appointed to the post, of announcing the cut for political reasons.
The lie detector
According to a flyer distributed at Donald Trump’s rally in Uniondale, Long Island, New York, last Wednesday by a group calling itself Japan for TrumpGod himself chose Trump, the ex-president is immortal and, in a previous existence, he was none other than George Washington. (The GuardianSeptember 19, 2024).
Unverifiable
Neither God nor George Washington could be contacted to confirm or deny these claims.
Photo of the week
Photo SAUL LOEB / AFP
On Thursday evening, Kamala Harris was the guest of star host Oprah Winfrey for a public forum broadcast in particular on YouTube.
Such events are part of a strategy by both campaigns to reach undecided voters, a significant proportion of whom do not engage with conventional media.
