When confronted by Joe Biden, especially after the first assassination attempt against him, Donald Trump had his own fate in his hands. It was up to him to lose or win the election.
The trend is now reversed. If it continues, Kamala Harris will be the first president of the United States.
Progress confirmed
Polls abound, whether nationally or in the famous pivotal states. Overall, they confirm week after week the success of the Democratic campaign.
No, we are not talking about a wave, there will not be one, but progress, even minimal, is constant. On The Hill site, the probability of a Harris victory is now estimated at 55%.
If she can count on massive support from women and young people, Kamala Harris, helped by the presence of her running mate Tim Walz, is doing better than expected with the white electorate.
She is now ahead of her rival in six of the seven swing states. By refocusing her message, she broadened her support.
A scenario respected to the letter
Since entering the scene, Kamala Harris and her team have followed a finely crafted game plan. Everything in its time.
Initially limited to partisan rallies and the euphoric cocoon of the convention, Kamala Harris revealed herself fully during the debate.
During the interviews that followed, she initially remained on the surface of the issues, before more recently detailing her plan for the economy.
This last point was a burden for the candidate. The Democratic strategy, however, seems to be bearing fruit since Harris has practically caught up with her rival when voters are asked about the ability of the two candidates to manage the economy well.
Friday, the Democrat attacked her greatest weakness, the border. She will not be ahead of the Republican on this issue, but if she remains disciplined, she could regain some decisive points in the polls.
Draft, Trump plateaus
Stubborn and impulsive, Donald Trump has been his own worst enemy for several weeks. The usual vociferations and empty slogans have little effect outside the partisan circle. However, he does nothing to correct the situation.
It is legitimate to wonder if the Republican has not plateaued, if he no longer has clienteles whose support he can increase.
All that remains is to hope that the gains made among Spanish speakers and the black community in 2020 are maintained.
I struggle to find errors in the management of Kamala Harris’ campaign. This does not yet guarantee her victory, but she avoids playing into the hands of her opponent. Donald Trump has not yet understood this message.
