If, as expected, Joe Biden faces Donald Trump again, his chances of obtaining a second term are high.
Since the start of 2024, the outgoing president seems to be banking everything on the demonization of an adversary whose troubles with the justice system are historic. This strategy bore fruit in 2020, but it has its limits.
An intractable approach to the southern border
The multiple trials involving Donald Trump and the issue of abortion will constitute handicaps for the Republicans. Joe Biden and his people already see the problems at the southern border looming in the rearview mirror.
The month of December 2023 shattered records. American border services have intercepted around a quarter of a million immigrants who crossed the border illegally.
So far, Joe Biden and Democratic congressional leaders have said they are rejecting Republican demands for tougher measures. GOP elected officials have even indicated that they would refuse any additional budget for Ukraine if they do not obtain concessions from the president.
If he thinks beyond his usual support, Joe Biden should give in to certain Republican demands. Not only would he get much-needed funds to Ukraine, but the independent electorate could be sensitive to tougher policies. The theme of immigration worries and divides.
On a political level, the risk here seems moderate to me. If we annoy the most progressive elements, they could perhaps limit their criticism if Joe Biden does not give in on extended stays of migrants for humanitarian reasons. The devil will be in the details…
Defending the indefensible: the Israeli friend
The other major concern of the 46e president should be managing his support for Israel. Both on the international scene and in the United States, Israel’s sympathy capital is crumbling.
If the Hamas terrorist attack had been almost unanimously condemned, the Israeli response is now seen as disproportionate.
Joe Biden and Antony Blinken give the impression of not weighing very heavily in the balance. If they claim to negotiate discreetly with Netanyahu, Bibi does not seem to want to cooperate.
This issue is a veritable Pandora’s box, but by persisting in not acting to obtain a ceasefire or moderate Israeli ardor in the West Bank, the American president is directly associated with the humanitarian crisis.
This conflict between Hamas and Israel divides Americans and also affects unity within the Democratic Party as an election year begins.
Democrats who scold Biden on the Hamas v. Israel will not turn to the Republican Party. The risk is, as some did in 2016, that they will stay at home in November 2024.
As all the polls clearly indicate that Biden does not arouse enthusiasm, he must do everything to ensure the mobilization of his troops and independents. Demonizing Trump is no longer enough, he must act, and quickly.
